Mexico vs. Ecuador: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb5d6017ebf2aa2b7d4fb84a81c8d7318cbea3daf3eefecad404d8e097c46f70

Rebuilt 45 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $17,886
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $17,487

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,886 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	63c	5,322$3,362 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,959.86	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x158d…9c64backed Yes	38c	3,820$1,442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,442.15	134	54.5%73 W · 61 L	+6.4wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Yes	35c	2,000$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	230	46.5%107 W · 123 L	-5.0wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4505…ec35backed No	64c	1,815$1,154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$660.73	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed No	79c	1,370$1,082 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$287.85	166	56.6%94 W · 72 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f41…5ffcbacked No	64c	1,101$702 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$398.99	342	49.1%168 W · 174 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae4…273ebacked Yes	32c	1,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	93	54.8%51 W · 42 L	+5.6wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No	70c	874.61$615 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$259.29	2,533	46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L	+12.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…7c42backed Yes	13c	769.23$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	40	45%18 W · 22 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked No	65c	760.57$494 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$266.2	296	46.3%137 W · 159 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes	36c	600$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216	1,492	41%612 W · 880 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xddec…0015backed No	68c	599.98$408 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.06	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes	29c	517.01$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.76	802	25.7%206 W · 596 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Yes	29c	444.08$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.08	209	55.5%116 W · 93 L	+12.8wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d7e…3de7backed No	71c	321.56$228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.56	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+60.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4b1…e077backed No	68c	300$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	37c	299.17$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.48	226	34.1%77 W · 149 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1872…1962backed No	62c	294.96$183 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.88	36	52.8%19 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe92a…7d0dbacked Yes	35c	285.71$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18af…66efbacked Yes	36c	277.78$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	47	38.3%18 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde4b…b1b9backed Yes	39c	256.41$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	100	38%38 W · 62 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes	35c	247.23$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.14	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcade…1ff6backed Yes	37c	205.54$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	93	49.5%46 W · 47 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed No	66c	200.01$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68	281	48.4%136 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdbe…b6d8backed Yes	40c	180$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	-4.7wins	-0.12per pick	24cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5130…0187backed Yes	13c	155.18$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked No	64c	148$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.36	245	41.2%101 W · 144 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f50…3191backed Yes	35c	142.86$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	45	60%27 W · 18 L	+5.3wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+12%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc43a…fb09backed Yes	36c	139.19$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked Yes	37c	136.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-4.4wins	-0.13per pick	28cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x88bc…403cbacked Yes	38c	130.8$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2407…7dcabacked No	66c	130.5$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.37	210	42.4%89 W · 121 L	+10.4wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32f7…327fbacked Yes	13c	115.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	44	34.1%15 W · 29 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07db…29e4backed Yes	37c	111.37$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	174	34.5%60 W · 114 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92a9…e971backed No	71c	105.7$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.7	77	49.4%38 W · 39 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd41…8761backed Yes	36c	100$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.6	300	40.3%121 W · 179 L	-10.6wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc54…db0ebacked Yes	35c	100$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	196	53.6%105 W · 91 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac45…9fd3backed No	68c	99.99$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+43.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9cf…c8b9backed No	65c	85.37$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.89	58	32.8%19 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9996…72a8backed Yes	36c	84.13$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	242	56.6%137 W · 105 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa278…3369backed Yes	38c	80.55$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.6	1,111	24.3%270 W · 841 L	-32.2wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x288c…a092backed Yes	37c	78.57$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.07	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4338…f330backed Yes	39c	76.92$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+2.2wins	+0.12per pick	32cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefa6…ae45backed No	65c	73.86$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.85	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x20ca…ab06backed Yes	35c	70$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb03…c39bbacked Yes	36c	69.44$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	52	61.5%32 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked No	65c	65$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.06	2,231	49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L	-21.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e9b…1687backed Yes	32c	63.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-24%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89b6…886ebacked Yes	35c	57.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	107	49.5%53 W · 54 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd033…033dbacked Yes	35c	57.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	69	47.8%33 W · 36 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e5e…885cbacked Yes	36c	55.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-4.7wins	-0.10per pick	24cpaid	-40%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Yes	36c	55.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	360	38.1%137 W · 223 L	-15.1wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-14%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa62d…077cbacked Yes	37c	54.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	62	50%31 W · 31 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x457a…37d5backed Yes	37c	54.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	106	44.3%47 W · 59 L	-3.7wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cf…f0cbbacked Yes	39c	51.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	240	46.3%111 W · 129 L	+4.8wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-12%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23d0…d98bbacked No	62c	50$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb00f…f072backed Yes	41c	48.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	52	34.6%18 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cef…2c8dbacked No	61c	48.64$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.08	434	60.4%262 W · 172 L	+33.5wins	+0.08per pick	53cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf133…fea4backed Yes	34c	44.12$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	82	45.1%37 W · 45 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafce…db52backed No	71c	42.39$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.39	125	38.4%48 W · 77 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54e8…5e6bbacked Yes	39c	40$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	79	51.9%41 W · 38 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb64e…a85cbacked No	65c	40$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+2.9wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+13%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60e0…33fabacked Yes	38c	39.97$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	375	26.1%98 W · 277 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ca…2f70backed Yes	39c	38.76$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	84	59.5%50 W · 34 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No	63c	34.02$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.73	2,796	56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L	-9.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac44…6514backed No	64c	31.25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.25	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+19%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbcba…04ddbacked Yes	35c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	69	50.7%35 W · 34 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c0…482abacked Yes	39c	30$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	89	61.8%55 W · 34 L	+7.0wins	+0.08per pick	54cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0066…49e4backed No	60c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No	61c	18.03$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.03	90	64.4%58 W · 32 L	+11.7wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Mexico vs. Ecuador: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?this page
Mexico vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 2.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico O/U 0.5Over won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico O/U 1.5Over won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Mexico O/U 2.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5Over won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5Over won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 5.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5Under won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to AdvanceMexico won
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)Mexico won
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)Mexico won
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)Mexico won
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)Mexico won
Spread: Mexico (-2.5)Ecuador won
Spread: Mexico (-3.5)Ecuador won
Spread: Mexico (-4.5)Ecuador won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Mexico vs. Ecuador: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event