TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x36d7…d545

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
34
Categories scored
3
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: NHL, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 58 out of 100; worst NBA at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2025, EDT2365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+37.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
NHL — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hurricanes vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT+150%+$67.14
Stars vs. Jetsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$48.68
Hurricanes vs. Capitalsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$35.92
Avalanche vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$52.87
Senators vs. Maple Leafsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+150%+$73.5
Lightning vs. Panthersbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.01
Maple Leafs vs. Senatorsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$50.75
Oilers vs. Kingsbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$68.2
Canadiens vs. Capitalsbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.56
Avalanche vs. Starsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.1
Canadiens vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$24.73
Devils vs. Hurricanesbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.09
Sharks vs. Canucksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$9.18
Blackhawks vs. Canadiensbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT+244.8%+$28.52
Blue Jackets vs. Capitalsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$40.08
Maple Leafs vs. Hurricanesbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$62.81
Blues vs. Krakenbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$25.16
Predators vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$10.86
Wild vs. Flamesbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.69
Ducks vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$5.56
Maple Leafs vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.82
Maple Leafs vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$17.58
Penguins vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$24.38
All 23 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2025, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-31.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.74
Rockets vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$25.52
Knicks vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.93
Lakers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$73.99
Celtics vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT+150%+$47.82
Heat vs. Cavaliersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.94
Mavericks vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$20.62
Heat vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$103.6
Thunder vs. Jazzbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT+25%+$6.59
Knicks vs. Pistonsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.44
All 10 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Florida vs. Houstonbacked Florida · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$18.32
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.