TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x4387…f89e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
34
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Premier League, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 54 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST2334.8%8 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pacers vs. Clippersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$347Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$347
Hawks vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$754Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$754.5
Spread: Pistons (-1.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+108.3%+$520
Knicks vs. Timberwolvesbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$96
Wizards vs. Hornetsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$102
Suns vs. Warriorsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$96
Mavericks vs. 76ersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$98
Rockets vs. Nuggetsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+92.3%+$96
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$180
Mavericks vs. Jazzbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$106
Raptors vs. Heatbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+203%+$203.03
Pistons vs. Celticsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+112.8%+$106
Lakers vs. Sunsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+88.7%+$141
76ers vs. Hawksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$111
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+354.5%+$234
Knicks vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$144
Clippers vs. Heatbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$124
Bulls vs. Magicbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Celtics vs. Cavaliersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+270.4%+$292
Raptors vs. Knicksbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$112
Rockets vs. Warriorsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+122.2%+$137.5
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$73.1
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$15
All 23 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+117.4%+$54
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$330
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 27, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$2,158Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$2,158.09
Linea airdrop in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$11
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+457.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Liverpool wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT+457.5%+$265.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+28.2%+$16.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
QatarEnergy resumes LNG production by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.