TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5aa2…c092

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
33
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Ncaa Basketball, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Ncaa Basketball at 53 out of 100; worst Bundesliga at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jets vs. Rangersbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$79.17
Kraken vs. Canucksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.49
Red Wings vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+51.7%+$39.47
Blue Jackets vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.58
Senators vs. Canucksbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+47.3%+$33.88
Hurricanes vs. Flamesbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+163.6%+$103.32
Avalanche vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$61.85
Maple Leafs vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+88.7%+$59.78
Avalanche vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$67.8
Hurricanes vs. Krakenbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$112.39
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 26, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pelicans vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$33.98
Heat vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.11
Magic vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$24.02
Heat vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$80.73
Heat vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$58.7
Pelicans vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+37.2%+$49.82
Pelicans vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$11.41
All 7 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+41.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-24.5)backed Iowa State Cyclones · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$77.49
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinalsbacked Louisville Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$32.39
All 2 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick63cpaid+60%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+61.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,099Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$935.91
Will Leeds United FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+37%+$37.13
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.97
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.18
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$19.25
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-02-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$11.47
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-02-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+75.4%+$13.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$222
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.