TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc711…bf1d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
34
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: Champions League, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 55 out of 100; worst La Liga at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST1650%8 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+38.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+156.4%+$312.51
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$299.85
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$125
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$269Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$269.1
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$125
Will Everton win on 2025-10-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+65.9%+$115.39
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$125
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.42
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+100%+$209.02
Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$233.33
Will Newcastle win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$41.56
Will Brentford win on 2025-10-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$278.42
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+150%+$262.31
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+455.6%+$341.67
Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$200.39
All 16 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT1172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-10-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+47.8%+$95.82
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-10-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$12.25
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-10-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$17.66
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-10-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$75
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+43.1%+$43.09
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-10-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$36.21
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-10-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$47.07
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$88.45
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-10-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$30.18
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-10-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$31.97
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Della Maddalena · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$299.84
Ankalaev vs. Pereirabacked Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$532.06
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Oct 27, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Betis win on 2025-10-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+40%+$40.05
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$222.92
All 2 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.