TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf132…8e5a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
40
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Ncaa Basketball, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Ncaa Basketball at 54 out of 100; worst NFL at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST1346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-24.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
49ers vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$163
Spread: Cowboys (-3.5)backed Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+78.6%+$15.71
Ravens vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+66.7%+$22.67
Giants vs. Raidersbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+81.8%+$32.73
Saints vs. Titansbacked Saints · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+85.2%+$42.59
Seahawks vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Steelers vs. Brownsbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Bills vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Eagles vs. Chargersbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Bears vs. Packersbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$232.88
Bengals vs. Billsbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Giants vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+29.9%+$59.74
Broncos vs. Commandersbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+40.8%+$81.69
All 13 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST1060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
College Football — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oregon vs. Indianabacked Indiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+61.3%+$33.1
Miami vs. Ole Missbacked Ole Miss · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Spread: Georgia (-6.5)backed Georgia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Spread: Indiana (-7.5)backed Indiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+88.7%+$17.74
Alabama vs. Indianabacked Indiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$4.67
Oregon vs. Texas Tech Red Raidersbacked Oregon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+75.4%+$49.04
Miami vs. Ohio Statebacked Ohio State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$99
Spread: Pittsburgh (-9.5)backed East Carolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+132.6%+$53.02
Ohio State vs. Indianabacked Ohio State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$250
Georgia vs. Alabamabacked Georgia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+63.2%+$126.35
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST1060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trail Blazers vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$40
76ers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Hawks vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Spurs vs. Lakersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+244.8%+$48.97
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 224.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+127.3%+$25.45
Hornets vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$350
Nuggets vs. Hawksbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+51.5%+$164.85
Lakers vs. Raptorsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+108.3%+$238.33
Heat vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+33.3%+$33.33
Hornets vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+28.2%+$70.51
All 10 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$18
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.