Will Turkiye reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x158a4956f42fc85abce18b32c3366e15bdbe58157f70430ef60fd82cfa5be320

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $9,525
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,326

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,525 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	76c	1,568$1,186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$382.04	1,075	45.2%486 W · 589 L	+41.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7e1…bb47backed Yes	25c	1,222$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	55	54.5%30 W · 25 L	+5.2wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed No	76c	834.95$631 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.61	287	31%89 W · 198 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2567…fc9dbacked Yes	25c	811.6$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	123	49.6%61 W · 62 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No	75c	652.71$489 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.34	218	37.2%81 W · 137 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5254…891bbacked Yes	24c	408.33$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x79fd…75b6backed Yes	24c	399.62$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0b…3282backed Yes	27c	374.07$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x158c…9164backed No	73c	333.33$243 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	35	57.1%20 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed No	79c	276.92$219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.15	172	49.4%85 W · 87 L	+6.5wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79f6…c722backed Yes	11c	254.82$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.03	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35d3…e506backed Yes	21c	238.1$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	206	26.2%54 W · 152 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed No	79c	200$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	373	50.1%187 W · 186 L	+45.7wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+28%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x8647…d870backed Yes	20c	199.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	64	43.8%28 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee2…035dbacked Yes	25c	195.83$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.7	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Yes	10c	137.25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.06	179	45.3%81 W · 98 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c09…ed31backed Yes	25c	124$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	144	40.3%58 W · 86 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ab…4921backed Yes	21c	123.81$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	17cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44f3…975cbacked No	80c	119.98$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	68	30.9%21 W · 47 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed No	76c	116.99$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.52	254	43.7%111 W · 143 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x509f…876bbacked Yes	21c	95.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x436b…3236backed Yes	24c	93.21$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.45	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No	76c	87.5$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	222	42.8%95 W · 127 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5035…cf0dbacked Yes	24c	83.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	96	29.2%28 W · 68 L	-8.5wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	76c	60$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	228	34.6%79 W · 149 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16e3…22d5backed No	78c	57.1$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.56	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+57.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf854…8e03backed Yes	27c	55.56$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	73	41.1%30 W · 43 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc7…4572backed No	77c	49.99$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.5	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4349…2057backed Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No	76c	35.21$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.45	341	51%174 W · 167 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	76c	32.93$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.9	550	44.7%246 W · 304 L	-27.4wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4615…5ccbbacked No	79c	32.92$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.91	51	72.5%37 W · 14 L	+7.6wins	+0.15per pick	58cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9a67…024ebacked No	79c	28$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.88	19	78.9%15 W · 4 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	71cpaid	+13%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed No	72c	17.86$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	61	55.7%34 W · 27 L	+3.7wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Turkiye reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event