Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99d39e3d880686e881b6a6739f4d99336fd54a080d318e8dfd2b980205a33f1e

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $64,411
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $53,762

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,411 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes	11c	6,213$661 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$660.91	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66a3…2a0dbacked Yes	21c	5,774$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.4wins	+0.15per pick	29cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No	79c	5,636$4,463 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,173.18	218	37.2%81 W · 137 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Yes	10c	5,104$522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$522.43	193	45.1%87 W · 106 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	10c	4,398$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444.36	1,067	49.1%524 W · 543 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Yes	8c	3,423$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275	472	35%165 W · 307 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7fb…e5fdbacked Yes	11c	3,000$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327	112	56.3%63 W · 49 L	+9.5wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes	10c	2,753$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.94	436	35.8%156 W · 280 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	2c	1,615$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.25	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e7d…ca41backed Yes	10c	1,500$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	73	39.7%29 W · 44 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…419bbacked Yes	15c	1,401$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.6	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	10c	1,186$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.4	221	25.8%57 W · 164 L	-10.0wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes	19c	1,179$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.54	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-4.2wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes	10c	1,080$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.97	589	26.8%158 W · 431 L	-30.5wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d1b…5adbbacked Yes	20c	1,031$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.93	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	10c	1,000$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	550	44.7%246 W · 304 L	-27.4wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed No	80c	654.16$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.67	287	31%89 W · 198 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a7c…3016backed Yes	12c	599.98$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.2	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	-6.7wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes	13c	575$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.47	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	25cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xceab…dce7backed No	77c	528.17$408 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.48	544	50.6%275 W · 269 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f0d…8d9dbacked Yes	21c	526.19$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked Yes	13c	518$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.34	513	15.6%80 W · 433 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes	11c	487.01$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.24	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes	12c	458.7$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.94	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b2c…f03fbacked Yes	24c	424.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-34%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes	10c	423$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.15	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1964…ec64backed Yes	10c	406.27$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	12cpaid	-81%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes	8c	404.16$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.49	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e67…9a3ebacked Yes	12c	401.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	300	32.3%97 W · 203 L	+4.8wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes	9c	387.48$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.87	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb042…998ebacked Yes	21c	358.19$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.92	40	32.5%13 W · 27 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd449…450fbacked Yes	10c	332.61$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.04	127	44.9%57 W · 70 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16da…05c0backed Yes	8c	253$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	219	37.9%83 W · 136 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed Yes	11c	250$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.25	77	33.8%26 W · 51 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked No	79c	248.44$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.35	179	45.3%81 W · 98 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes	12c	245$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	167	41.9%70 W · 97 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb436…95ecbacked Yes	20c	208.1$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.42	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2c0…f73abacked Yes	20c	200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	114	37.7%43 W · 71 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7ed…18f6backed Yes	10c	198.02$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	47	25.5%12 W · 35 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945e…353dbacked Yes	15c	195.13$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	85	54.1%46 W · 39 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No	75c	183.42$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.86	263	30%79 W · 184 L	+12.6wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes	7c	170$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.15	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed Yes	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	-3.3wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x428f…5d1bbacked Yes	10c	148.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.96	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	39cpaid	-41.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes	13c	143.34$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.69	181	39.8%72 W · 109 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe619…6342backed Yes	21c	140$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	479	35.1%168 W · 311 L	+4.5wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204c…1e26backed Yes	12c	140$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.38	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes	10c	140$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.37	707	50.1%354 W · 353 L	+25.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a8b…c9f8backed Yes	19c	130$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	26	50%13 W · 13 L	+2.6wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6004…d473backed Yes	15c	120.3$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.82	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	43cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes	11c	120$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	82	18.3%15 W · 67 L	-6.0wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x697d…f299backed Yes	25c	120$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-88.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x451b…69b6backed Yes	12c	119.03$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.14	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	25cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes	13c	104$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.21	194	45.4%88 W · 106 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d8f…696bbacked Yes	13c	100.55$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.77	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+3.6wins	+0.21per pick	37cpaid	+39.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed No	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	572	52.4%300 W · 272 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	47	40.4%19 W · 28 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e4b…83e2backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	37	59.5%22 W · 15 L	+5.3wins	+0.14per pick	45cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x43ba…6f8abacked Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf166…fb37backed Yes	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-86.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb026…d4fdbacked Yes	10c	99.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	50	30%15 W · 35 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-31%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b13…0c4abacked Yes	17c	99.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	58	31%18 W · 40 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d2…6f36backed Yes	10c	99.01$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes	10c	96$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.06	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes	19c	60$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1400…d220backed No	77c	50$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeee…a9bbbacked Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae9…3e79backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6260…6a8ebacked No	78c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.4	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	68cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No	79c	19.22$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.95	198	74.7%148 W · 50 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	74cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc853…9d37backed No	80c	12.81$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.56	47	38.3%18 W · 29 L	-7.6wins	-0.16per pick	54cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event