Will Paraguay reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dc7b4115acf0ec0340c301b6cbe1153db45b551a0e931726f16ac38c1c5dd4d

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $91,844
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $92,337

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,844 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes	2c	12,894$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.08	744	47.8%356 W · 388 L	+11.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b3a…783ebacked Yes	0c	10,200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes	10c	3,384$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.45	252	44.8%113 W · 139 L	+11.6wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Yes	8c	2,999$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.11	269	40.9%110 W · 159 L	+7.8wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes	3c	2,529$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.42	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+35.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes	8c	2,457$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.03	589	26.8%158 W · 431 L	-30.5wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	3c	2,266$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.03	199	29.1%58 W · 141 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	10c	2,000$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193	550	44.7%246 W · 304 L	-27.4wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes	7c	1,788$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.79	127	9.4%12 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	9c	1,575$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.78	221	25.8%57 W · 164 L	-10.0wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x769c…3d88backed Yes	7c	1,536$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	-2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2956…d31bbacked Yes	4c	1,400$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	71	42.3%30 W · 41 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf643…ef25backed Yes	7c	1,400$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Yes	10c	1,389$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.97	81	34.6%28 W · 53 L	-7.5wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5fd8…ce32backed Yes	7c	1,375$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.62	133	30.1%40 W · 93 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Yes	6c	1,159$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.14	753	35.6%268 W · 485 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd36c…e7babacked Yes	8c	1,073$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	66	7.6%5 W · 61 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes	6c	1,038$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.03	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes	9c	920.95$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.87	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98c1…3d1ebacked Yes	8c	700$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.2	84	57.1%48 W · 36 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes	4c	668.08$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.8	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes	8c	643$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.11	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6e5…7127backed Yes	8c	634.81$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	101	35.6%36 W · 65 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b0b…3088backed Yes	8c	625$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.13	57	49.1%28 W · 29 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes	7c	623$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.63	123	52.8%65 W · 58 L	+11.3wins	+0.09per pick	44cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf20f…1b8fbacked Yes	13c	533.2$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.27	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	27cpaid	+29.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	8c	500$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.5	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab2d…b1aabacked Yes	4c	476$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.66	165	40.6%67 W · 98 L	-7.7wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c1f…88eabacked Yes	9c	408.66$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	21	66.7%14 W · 7 L	+2.3wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf301…dd70backed Yes	9c	400$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.4	58	55.2%32 W · 26 L	+5.2wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf68…20d8backed Yes	6c	399.93$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	+4.0wins	+0.10per pick	41cpaid	+4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x83c8…a521backed Yes	7c	315.57$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.09	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa319…875ebacked Yes	8c	313.09$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfeef…4b1fbacked Yes	8c	307.38$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	423	32.9%139 W · 284 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-21%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	8c	265.16$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.47	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	159	42.1%67 W · 92 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d81…11a2backed Yes	13c	230$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-2.3wins	-0.14per pick	21cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a31…1164backed Yes	7c	228.35$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.11	186	36.6%68 W · 118 L	-7.0wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-35%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x428f…5d1bbacked Yes	11c	208.09$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.31	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	39cpaid	-41.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed Yes	9c	191.54$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.29	144	36.1%52 W · 92 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x083d…4d61backed Yes	8c	189.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	67	53.7%36 W · 31 L	+6.7wins	+0.10per pick	44cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes	11c	160$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.92	163	33.7%55 W · 108 L	-8.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x68cc…78e0backed Yes	8c	157.12$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.26	215	17.2%37 W · 178 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b13…0c4abacked Yes	11c	156.34$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.13	58	31%18 W · 40 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccdd…c38cbacked Yes	7c	155$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.31	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes	10c	137$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.11	171	38%65 W · 106 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b51…866ebacked Yes	10c	107.05$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.24	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Paraguay reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event