Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe86a46a4e8a62a0f2b9197bfecd513f78646e10bbb7a2f8fa7d7c8dfee97ebb3

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $66,702
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $74,131

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,702 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1154…0d31backed Yes	15c	7,330$1,099 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,099.5	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-61.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1104…002abacked Yes	23c	5,275$1,211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,211.25	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-4.0wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-48%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes	4c	4,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	326	29.1%95 W · 231 L	+14.5wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes	18c	3,940$710 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$709.95	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x40e2…565bbacked Yes	17c	2,059$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	8cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55fd…2c99backed Yes	17c	2,059$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	41	19.5%8 W · 33 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes	17c	2,021$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353.05	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47fb…74d6backed Yes	18c	2,000$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	55	18.2%10 W · 45 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Yes	18c	1,609$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.32	269	40.9%110 W · 159 L	+7.8wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27ca…2656backed Yes	17c	1,600$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272	37	59.5%22 W · 15 L	+5.5wins	+0.15per pick	45cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe8b0…cc4bbacked Yes	19c	1,316$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	111	65.8%73 W · 38 L	+15.3wins	+0.14per pick	52cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x8577…bc05backed Yes	18c	753.78$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.78	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b87…6a47backed Yes	17c	749.3$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.97	47	40.4%19 W · 28 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes	21c	732.06$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.71	589	26.8%158 W · 431 L	-30.5wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	16c	634.88$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.32	412	31.6%130 W · 282 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7828…e558backed No	75c	600$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes	27c	575.47$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.56	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27af…cee0backed Yes	18c	555.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	18cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8170…45a7backed Yes	2c	542$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.84	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.25per pick	25cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	13c	523.35$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.52	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3109…4ef4backed Yes	17c	512.94$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.2	120	25.8%31 W · 89 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0693…9679backed No	70c	505.79$352 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153.34	226	33.6%76 W · 150 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Yes	18c	500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	471	27.8%131 W · 340 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e67…9a3ebacked Yes	18c	424.84$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	300	32.3%97 W · 203 L	+4.8wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	24c	416.82$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.86	427	37.2%159 W · 268 L	-15.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5595…12a8backed Yes	17c	352.94$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes	14c	322.85$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.69	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes	17c	300.6$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.1	1,306	44.7%584 W · 722 L	-9.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes	39c	300$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117	163	36.2%59 W · 104 L	-9.2wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4b0…427ebacked Yes	16c	300$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x720a…6869backed Yes	29c	300$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	48	20.8%10 W · 38 L	-4.2wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e7b…8767backed No	57c	279.79$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.78	110	58.2%64 W · 46 L	+13.1wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7a21…f1babacked Yes	18c	277.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes	18c	275.3$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.55	163	33.7%55 W · 108 L	-8.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xab2d…b1aabacked Yes	17c	275.3$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.8	165	40.6%67 W · 98 L	-7.7wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	9c	251.53$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.49	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ee0…1adebacked Yes	45c	245.62$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b13…0c4abacked Yes	15c	240$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.8	58	31%18 W · 40 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd508…259dbacked Yes	18c	230.72$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.53	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes	17c	210.84$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.84	181	39.8%72 W · 109 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4043…2bc7backed Yes	15c	205.88$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	63	15.9%10 W · 53 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb026…d4fdbacked Yes	19c	199.98$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	50	30%15 W · 35 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-31%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6593…445ebacked Yes	18c	194.44$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32d1…b949backed Yes	17c	176.47$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdfcb…5f40backed Yes	16c	163.68$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	15c	161.69$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.71	221	25.8%57 W · 164 L	-10.0wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bab…8322backed Yes	16c	160.33$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.65	53	32.1%17 W · 36 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes	15c	149.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d8f…4aeebacked Yes	17c	147.06$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	97	27.8%27 W · 70 L	-4.3wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes	32c	140.02$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.51	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ae2…41b9backed Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.19per pick	21cpaid	+45.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe33f…132dbacked Yes	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6ba4…26b5backed Yes	18c	107.76$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.82	70	52.9%37 W · 33 L	+5.6wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52e5…a3babacked Yes	17c	105.88$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	86	31.4%27 W · 59 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d8f…696bbacked Yes	18c	103.67$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.66	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+3.6wins	+0.21per pick	37cpaid	+39.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x699f…0c04backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	101	51.5%52 W · 49 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	85	28.2%24 W · 61 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b71…f840backed Yes	14c	99.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	128	29.7%38 W · 90 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd497…c62fbacked Yes	17c	99.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	123	30.9%38 W · 85 L	-5.5wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-33%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes	13c	94$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	350	33.7%118 W · 232 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c24…1375backed Yes	19c	93.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.86	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x358e…5defbacked Yes	17c	90$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x451b…69b6backed Yes	17c	83.18$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.14	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	25cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed Yes	17c	75$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	116	37.1%43 W · 73 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf715…bbf0backed Yes	18c	71.48$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.82	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55fb…07e1backed Yes	16c	70$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4b…dce1backed Yes	15c	67$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1915…6356backed Yes	45c	66.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes	17c	60$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	2,327	18.1%422 W · 1,905 L	-363.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1769…974ebacked Yes	17c	59.28$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	45	37.8%17 W · 28 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes	32c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	171	38%65 W · 106 L	-3.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad1b…1d65backed Yes	25c	50$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.7	92	59.8%55 W · 37 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe016…0a34backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32d0…6070backed No	80c	45$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	67	44.8%30 W · 37 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No	76c	35$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	345	51.9%179 W · 166 L	+17.8wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd990…749ebacked No	65c	16.25$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.69	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+2.3wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event