Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1d7947564e4239a56cbaf66a2b4ab3f108ad6058124457b55e54311afd4dd1c

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $72,252
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $71,992

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,252 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4b40…2f6abacked Yes	7c	15,916$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Yes	6c	5,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	193	45.1%87 W · 106 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes	6c	2,530$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.48	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes	10c	2,495$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.5	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27ca…2656backed Yes	9c	2,220$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.8	37	59.5%22 W · 15 L	+5.5wins	+0.15per pick	45cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1b2c…f03fbacked Yes	24c	2,071$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-34%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed No	75c	1,596$1,197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$399	61	55.7%34 W · 27 L	+3.7wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	7c	1,358$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.59	438	35.8%157 W · 281 L	-10.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes	9c	1,350$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.51	589	26.8%158 W · 431 L	-30.5wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed No	80c	1,250$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250.07	67	61.2%41 W · 26 L	+6.0wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd097…93d0backed Yes	9c	1,111$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	94	50%47 W · 47 L	+10.1wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x53a5…59a4backed Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes	6c	866.67$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	744	47.8%356 W · 388 L	+11.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	2c	800$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes	11c	644.82$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.72	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0693…9679backed Yes	8c	598.5$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.67	226	33.6%76 W · 150 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	13c	388.19$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.89	427	37.2%159 W · 268 L	-15.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed Yes	15c	310$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.5	85	28.2%24 W · 61 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No	78c	300$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66	341	51%174 W · 167 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd4e…cd72backed Yes	11c	282.83$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-74.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc853…9d37backed No	80c	279.67$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.93	47	38.3%18 W · 29 L	-7.6wins	-0.16per pick	54cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x697d…f299backed Yes	23c	235.71$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-88.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked No	79c	234.2$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.38	707	50.1%354 W · 353 L	+25.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3e4…8669backed Yes	22c	228.18$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	+5.1wins	+0.13per pick	29cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No	73c	202.38$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	157	40.8%64 W · 93 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes	8c	178.94$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.87	260	37.3%97 W · 163 L	-6.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x503e…999cbacked Yes	22c	178.1$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes	9c	171.75$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.96	878	37.2%327 W · 551 L	-41.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2ab…0dc8backed Yes	9c	166.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	165	35.2%58 W · 107 L	-8.6wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e67…9a3ebacked Yes	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	300	32.3%97 W · 203 L	+4.8wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b13…0c4abacked Yes	16c	141.66$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.42	58	31%18 W · 40 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc03e…37febacked Yes	20c	123.81$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-75.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd449…450fbacked No	79c	114.4$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.88	127	44.9%57 W · 70 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066a…96a0backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd201…58a0backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	103	35.9%37 W · 66 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4b…dce1backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed No	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	572	52.4%300 W · 272 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e88…0c70backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	125	32.8%41 W · 84 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46b2…702abacked Yes	15c	96.88$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed No	79c	88.01$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.43	287	31%89 W · 198 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88cf…924dbacked Yes	21c	71.43$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	36cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	17c	65.47$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.09	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf93…2c46backed Yes	22c	53.95$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.87	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f81…857fbacked Yes	20c	51.98$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25cc…bc10backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf664…c89bbacked No	76c	21$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.04	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+1.3wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3609…4e3bbacked No	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+2.8wins	+0.12per pick	53cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xef53…f599backed No	75c	15.96$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.99	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+42.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2956…d31bbacked No	80c	15.78$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.21	71	42.3%30 W · 41 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8f6…4f7fbacked No	80c	14.38$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.88	102	54.9%56 W · 46 L	+7.1wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event