Will Uruguay reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab6a26b06b743637bac095e84db5203cc72f06ee829348ba060612f87e8ba990

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 27, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $132,780
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $132,839

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,780 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3eed…cb2abacked Yes	1c	124,993$1,251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,251.28	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-3.5wins	-0.15per pick	41cpaid	-63.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4615…5ccbbacked No	78c	627.68$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.09	51	72.5%37 W · 14 L	+7.6wins	+0.15per pick	58cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Yes	16c	500$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.5	78	38.5%30 W · 48 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	22c	492.54$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.36	412	31.6%130 W · 282 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd449…450fbacked Yes	12c	446$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.52	127	44.9%57 W · 70 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd74c…e70bbacked Yes	22c	400$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	51	21.6%11 W · 40 L	-6.1wins	-0.12per pick	34cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed No	79c	380.1$301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.45	350	33.7%118 W · 232 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	15c	283.35$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.5	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x003b…8a28backed Yes	9c	277.78$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-79.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes	17c	262.27$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.69	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked No	79c	250$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.5	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes	21c	240$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	200	36%72 W · 128 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Yes	21c	232.73$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.92	118	28.8%34 W · 84 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e8b…ebe0backed Yes	23c	213.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Yes	12c	209.66$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.16	43	14%6 W · 37 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+41%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes	14c	168$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.52	194	45.4%88 W · 106 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes	22c	150$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57cd…82acbacked Yes	23c	137$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.94	60	31.7%19 W · 41 L	-6.5wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes	13c	94.88$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.33	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked No	78c	83.86$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.45	707	50.1%354 W · 353 L	+25.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a8b…c9f8backed No	79c	63.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.29	26	50%13 W · 13 L	+2.6wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x17a7…2925backed Yes	21c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	80c	30$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6	228	34.6%79 W · 149 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	76c	20.96$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.03	1,075	45.2%486 W · 589 L	+41.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 43 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Uruguay reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event