TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$70,880
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,739

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,880 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under9c17,331$1,606 inLost-$1,606.088,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under11c13,624$1,441 inLost-$1,440.521,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6569…a053backed Under6c7,905$474 inLost-$474.36141%25 W · 36 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+35.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under9c4,277$368 inLost-$367.9952150.9%265 W · 256 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under7c2,000$130 inLost-$13066352.6%349 W · 314 L+30.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under9c1,440$122 inLost-$122.425954.4%141 W · 118 L+34.1wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+68.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Under5c1,177$58 inLost-$57.5831222.1%69 W · 243 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+79.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under11c1,153$127 inLost-$126.871449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Under7c1,000$73 inLost-$72.9911145.9%51 W · 60 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x29d8…e1b3backed Under10c461.38$46 inLost-$46.2910548.6%51 W · 54 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Under6c431.14$26 inLost-$25.8727937.3%104 W · 175 L+57.6wins+0.21per pick17cpaid+187%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Under6c317$18 inLost-$17.6421147.4%100 W · 111 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under7c306.11$21 inLost-$21.4632045.3%145 W · 175 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Under12c293.39$35 inLost-$35.0425554.5%139 W · 116 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Under11c243.48$26 inLost-$25.7937652.4%197 W · 179 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a7a…6c9abacked Under12c215.58$26 inLost-$25.872920.7%6 W · 23 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-44.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x630d…875abacked Under12c215.5$26 inLost-$25.86633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+95.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4023…5746backed Under11c185.59$20 inLost-$19.88837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb1…0073backed Under10c180$18 inLost-$1814953%79 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6303…9556backed Under12c166.67$20 inLost-$2018853.2%100 W · 88 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1992…30e2backed Under13c153.12$20 inLost-$19.995839.7%23 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06de…cf4cbacked Under19c146.53$28 inLost-$27.792937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under8c130.59$11 inLost-$10.861,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Under10c110$11 inLost-$1176054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x700b…8d0bbacked Under12c98.75$12 inLost-$11.851457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 98. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.