TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$56,743
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,059

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,743 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2b46…684dbacked Under0c12,796$25 inLost-$24.831,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda39…c640backed Under10c4,950$495 inLost-$4951546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+28.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under9c2,917$276 inLost-$276.088,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Under10c2,811$281 inLost-$281.141,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under9c2,312$217 inLost-$216.781,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under10c1,933$193 inLost-$193.287153.5%38 W · 33 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under10c1,528$156 inLost-$155.6764948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under9c1,484$134 inLost-$134.252150.9%265 W · 256 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Under9c841.38$79 inLost-$78.630448.4%147 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under9c839.99$76 inLost-$75.625954.4%141 W · 118 L+34.1wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+68.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under9c642.09$58 inLost-$57.7966352.6%349 W · 314 L+30.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x638e…a81bbacked Under10c462.06$46 inLost-$46.21520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecb…1f9fbacked Under10c450$45 inLost-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29d8…e1b3backed Under9c422.16$40 inLost-$4010548.6%51 W · 54 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e3e…a78abacked Under11c345.45$38 inLost-$3814237.3%53 W · 89 L-11.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under9c237.05$22 inLost-$22.471,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4023…5746backed Under15c123.08$18 inLost-$18.39837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 98. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.