TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,832
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,444

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,832 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8b5…a5cabacked No49c1,972$974 inLost-$973.513551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7c0…dadabacked Yes51c679.8$347 inWon+$333.112541.6%52 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Yes50c600$300 inWon+$30014443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8640…cdf1backed Yes51c588.24$300 inWon+$288.241172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.28per pick44cpaid+57.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x96a3…d944backed No49c569.83$279 inLost-$279.227950.6%40 W · 39 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed No48c533.7$256 inLost-$256.1749244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes51c500$255 inWon+$2456145.9%28 W · 33 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes52c367.37$191 inWon+$176.3484443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed No50c250$125 inLost-$12578445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c5…378abacked No49c249.99$122 inLost-$122.515744.6%70 W · 87 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a6…3463backed Yes50c196.33$98 inWon+$97.922934.5%10 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65b8…3446backed Yes51c128.77$65 inWon+$63.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3698…7160backed Yes50c100$50 inWon+$504151.2%21 W · 20 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+13.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe824…cf0cbacked No50c100$50 inLost-$50757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4078…7d91backed Yes52c86.54$45 inWon+$41.545540%22 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x88a2…68a0backed Yes50c84.91$42 inWon+$42.6815351%78 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0a1…6daebacked Yes52c74.62$39 inWon+$35.8222442.9%96 W · 128 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97a1…d1eebacked Yes50c70$35 inWon+$352369.6%16 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+36.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No49c61.59$30 inLost-$30.1833049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0289…dfd1backed Yes50c59.8$30 inWon+$29.8850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x410f…57febacked Yes51c58.2$30 inWon+$28.523100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+225.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No49c58.14$29 inLost-$28.6353842%226 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e44…9d02backed No50c50$25 inLost-$253850%19 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+18.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0710…9335backed Yes51c41.18$21 inWon+$20.181560%9 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb399…ba9abacked Yes51c40.12$20 inWon+$19.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4388…9ce4backed No52c40$21 inLost-$20.7619952.3%104 W · 95 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28b3…08e3backed Yes51c39.22$20 inWon+$19.223652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ff…0505backed Yes51c39.13$20 inWon+$19.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes50c30$15 inWon+$1527539.6%109 W · 166 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked Yes45c28.5$13 inWon+$15.6824949%122 W · 127 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60fe…4478backed Yes50c20$10 inWon+$10366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+23.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 98. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.