NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-17.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a8a1d0101cd365588606b19eb07d12fb83a0dc4d99835918d1a0dce8e8777b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Knicksof Spurs, Knicks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Spurs | 48c | 6,418$3,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,055.63 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Knicks | 54c | 5,379$2,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,447.75 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Knicks | 52c | 3,343$1,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.63 | 1,341 | 29.9%401 W · 940 L | -53.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Knicks | 60c | 2,072$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.38 | 931 | 48.4%451 W · 480 L | +34.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Spurs | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.08 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Spurs | 40c | 1,907$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.45 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Spurs | 8c | 1,063$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Spurs | 7c | 1,019$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.33 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b7…5ee3backed Spurs | 7c | 929.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 113 | 33.6%38 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Spurs | 36c | 860.75$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.29 | 305 | 51.5%157 W · 148 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Knicks | 47c | 834.76$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.06 | 552 | 51.3%283 W · 269 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68ef…89cabacked Knicks | 54c | 792.87$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff6f…6311backed Spurs | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…44a2backed Knicks | 43c | 600$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.7 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…bd51backed Knicks | 72c | 600$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Spurs | 44c | 582.87$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.3 | 538 | 42%226 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Spurs | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Spurs | 37c | 354.3$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.1 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…a053backed Spurs | 34c | 340.22$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.31 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Spurs | 48c | 284.33$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.19 | 272 | 45.6%124 W · 148 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c4…256ebacked Spurs | 9c | 281.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.29per pick | 34cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Spurs | 37c | 245.94$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1,194 | 48.8%583 W · 611 L | -22.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Spurs | 47c | 244.98$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Spurs | 44c | 235$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.01 | 189 | 41.8%79 W · 110 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Knicks | 51c | 186.96$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.86 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Spurs | 56c | 176.29$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 185 | 57.3%106 W · 79 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Spurs | 51c | 170.12$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 251 | 50.6%127 W · 124 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Knicks | 50c | 156.21$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 253 | 40.3%102 W · 151 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Spurs | 8c | 150.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 253 | 52.6%133 W · 120 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Knicks | 47c | 150.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.89 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Knicks | 61c | 146.03$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 528 | 61.9%327 W · 201 L | +32.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Knicks | 48c | 136.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Spurs | 33c | 124.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4e…ff92backed Knicks | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6ebacked Knicks | 53c | 116.15$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Spurs | 52c | 116.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -9.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Spurs | 47c | 111.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Knicks | 59c | 111.16$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 602 | 50.5%304 W · 298 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Knicks | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +24.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Knicks | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 688 | 38.5%265 W · 423 L | -26.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd032…5136backed Knicks | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Spurs | 43c | 85.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 592 | 55.4%328 W · 264 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Knicks | 42c | 84.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 255 | 54.5%139 W · 116 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Spurs | 45c | 82.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 219 | 53.4%117 W · 102 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba34…c745backed Knicks | 69c | 71.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -5.1wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Spurs | 41c | 61.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 326 | 54.6%178 W · 148 L | +22.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Spurs | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Spurs | 40c | 52.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Spurs | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Spurs | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -9.1wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Spurs | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 330 | 30.9%102 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Knicks | 47c | 49.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…bea8backed Spurs | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Spurs | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Spurs | 34c | 44.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Knicks | 58c | 43.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Spurs | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0afb…9a96backed Knicks | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +6.0wins | +0.33per pick | 45cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Knicks | 48c | 35.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 360 | 45%162 W · 198 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…3806backed Spurs | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -6.9wins | -0.28per pick | 60cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Knicks | 52c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Knicks | 61c | 32.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 520 | 53.3%277 W · 243 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Knicks | 54c | 31.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 649 | 48.2%313 W · 336 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Spurs | 44c | 30.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Knicks | 71c | 28.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca94…f663backed Knicks | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Knicks | 67c | 24.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Spurs | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 521 | 50.9%265 W · 256 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b96…a6d5backed Spurs | 62c | 18.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd465…a2eebacked Knicks | 72c | 15.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 98. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-17.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-10.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Spurs won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Spurs won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Devin Vassell: Points O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5No won
- Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 0.5Yes won
- OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-10.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-12.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-13.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-15.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-16.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-17.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-18.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-19.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-21.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Knicks (-9.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Spurs (-12.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Spurs (-13.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Spurs (-14.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Spurs (-15.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Spurs (-16.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Spurs (-18.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Spurs (-19.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Spurs (-20.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Spurs (-4.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Spurs (-7.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Knicks won
- Spurs vs. KnicksKnicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.