TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x352c…eb6c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
37
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: NHL, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 54 out of 100; worst NBA at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2025, EDT2055%11 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hurricanes vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.07
Hurricanes vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT+150%+$65.21
Avalanche vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT+150%+$77.64
Stars vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$14.55
Maple Leafs vs. Senatorsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.29
Kings vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$23.23
Hurricanes vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$35.3
Maple Leafs vs. Senatorsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+115.9%+$111.64
Stars vs. Avalanchebacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$64.26
Canadiens vs. Capitalsbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.26
Hurricanes vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$27.5
Ducks vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$7.96
Utah vs. Bluesbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.73
Blackhawks vs. Senatorsbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$58.54
Utah vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.02
Stars vs. Red Wingsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.62
Oilers vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$82.59
Wild vs. Canucksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.77
Canadiens vs. Maple Leafsbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.65
Blackhawks vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$39.43
All 20 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2025, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+34.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cubs vs. Marlinsbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$23.87
Reds vs. Piratesbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$77.11
Phillies vs. Rockiesbacked Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.43
Mariners vs. White Soxbacked White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.65
Cubs vs. Marlinsbacked Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$99.04
All 5 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will $Trump FDV be $50b or more on Feb 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+88.7%+$61.37
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$66.77
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win La Liga?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$23.96
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.