TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7546…6abf

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
64
Categories scored
4
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: NFL, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 62 out of 100; worst College Football at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST4946.9%23 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Celtics vs. Heatbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+72.4%+$141.12
Suns vs. Heatbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$48
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$165
Knicks vs. Trail Blazersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+35.1%+$61.36
Spurs vs. Celticsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+97.7%+$185.31
Clippers vs. Pistonsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+104.1%+$51
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$111
Thunder vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$34
76ers vs. Magicbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+85.2%+$92
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+75.4%+$62.78
Rockets vs. Trail Blazersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$171.19
Jazz vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+88.1%+$108.64
Wizards vs. 76ersbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$99
Mavericks vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$66.6
Suns vs. Rocketsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$65.68
Knicks vs. Pistonsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$104.55
Trail Blazers vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$349Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$349.28
76ers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$76.25
Timberwolves vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$137.99
Grizzlies vs. Lakersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$326
Hornets vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+81.8%+$45
Nuggets vs. Cavaliersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$107
Spurs vs. Pacersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+51.5%+$34
Jazz vs. Clippersbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$24.5
76ers vs. Mavericksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+28.2%+$90.2
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST1384.6%11 W · 2 L+4.0wins+0.31per pick54cpaid+60.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
NFL — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Texans vs. Steelersbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+47.1%+$63.99
Chargers vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+42.9%+$100.79
49ers vs. Eaglesbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+166.7%+$62.5
Bills vs. Jaguarsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$99
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+117.4%+$37.8
Ravens vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+88.7%+$47
Bears vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+56.3%+$18
Jaguars vs. Coltsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+57.5%+$73
Steelers vs. Brownsbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$43
Patriots vs. Ravensbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+113.7%+$26.6
Steelers vs. Lionsbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+98.3%+$17.35
Jaguars vs. Broncosbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+150%+$15
Buccaneers vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+47.1%+$8
All 13 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 27, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Connecticut vs. Armybacked Connecticut · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$13.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.