TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9c19…ea4d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
43
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Middle East, grading 65 out of 100 (+0.13 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 65 out of 100; worst NBA at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerbacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+25%+$3.11
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifierbacked Tundra Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.34
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+55.3%+$14.51
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.96
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$54.75
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Tundra Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.05
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked Xtreme Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+38.6%+$3.89
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+39%+$5.29
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.87
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+26.9%+$3.96
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stagebacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+26.8%+$3.58
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.63
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winnerbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+25.2%+$2.55
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1283.3%10 W · 2 L+5.0wins+0.41per pick42cpaid+260.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+441.5%+$44.28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+1,639.8%+$299.14
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.95
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+832.3%+$83.55
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+36.7%+$5.93
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+130.8%+$25.51
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+64.5%+$9.8
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+52.2%+$12.94
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$9.44
Iran closes its airspace by June 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+60.2%+$11.99
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+25%+$4.12
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.13
All 12 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Valorant — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2backed NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$6.14
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2backed 100 Thieves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+25%+$28.93
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2backed FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.03
Valorant: Division One vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stagebacked Azure Dragon Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+33.7%+$4.85
Valorant: SaD Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stagebacked SaD Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+39.3%+$7.94
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2backed Leviatán Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+26.5%+$5.14
Valorant: MIBR vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2backed MIBR · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$5.7
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2backed 100 Thieves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+29.8%+$4.38
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Dynamo Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stagebacked Nightblood Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+25%+$4.67
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.31
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.