TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf397…2354

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
41
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 62 out of 100; worst UFC at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2171.4%15 W · 6 L+5.0wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+75.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+534.6%+$435.24
Will Spain win the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+316.3%+$47.45
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+215.6%+$32.35
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+248.3%+$47.19
Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+147.7%+$36.92
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+60.5%+$15.17
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+126.9%+$18.55
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+67.7%+$10.16
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+80.5%+$9.66
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+49.4%+$12.07
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+25.6%+$3.84
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+52.9%+$5.31
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+100.6%+$15.09
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+55.7%+$7.25
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+106.3%+$10.82
All 21 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-56.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Golf — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+65.2%+$9.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$6.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+28.1%+$5.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Ilia Topuria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.