TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Senegal (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Senegalof Senegal, Iraq
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$888,982
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$988,436

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $888,982 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 527 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x23d8…0288backed Iraq64c76,000$48,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,639.8517949.2%88 W · 91 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Iraq56c68,145$37,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,981.9177152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf751…fec8backed Senegal37c51,250$18,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,287.59747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fd8…ce32backed Iraq63c47,000$29,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,539.8913330.1%40 W · 93 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe221…06f6backed Senegal39c38,440$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,440.358246.3%38 W · 44 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Senegal55c33,300$18,315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,9859839.8%39 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x361b…74febacked Senegal36c29,095$10,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,620.7551032.5%166 W · 344 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Senegal51c21,883$11,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,739.464,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Senegal35c17,353$6,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,279.7118738%71 W · 116 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa80e…6aa1backed Senegal38c14,725$5,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,149.4227345.8%125 W · 148 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Iraq45c13,601$6,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,061.923,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa69…02c1backed Iraq38c13,469$5,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,123.8843737.8%165 W · 272 L-0.9wins0.00per pick38cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ff…32ebbacked Iraq42c12,886$5,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,436.2910550.5%53 W · 52 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-28.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked Iraq48c11,824$5,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,634.2314727.2%40 W · 107 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe987…f0e1backed Iraq63c10,000$6,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,299.9638026.6%101 W · 279 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Senegal36c8,333$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,333.3336247.2%171 W · 191 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Iraq64c8,067$5,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,187.151,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Iraq66c7,800$5,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1481,53649.1%754 W · 782 L+32.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Senegal34c7,730$2,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,101.9821937%81 W · 138 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x122b…ac59backed Senegal60c7,226$4,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,873.7524533.5%82 W · 163 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Iraq52c7,067$3,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,666.182,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed Senegal35c7,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5507349.3%36 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Senegal36c6,500$2,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,156.528,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe6f…37b1backed Iraq41c6,416$2,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,598.72933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ad…85f7backed Iraq47c6,383$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-49.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Senegal35c6,276$2,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,056.767241.7%30 W · 42 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec57…0fa7backed Iraq6c6,148$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.9138819.1%74 W · 314 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Senegal38c6,056$2,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,754.8436250.8%184 W · 178 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Iraq63c5,378$3,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,394.422,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56f4…9ec5backed Senegal57c5,272$2,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,275.3241331%128 W · 285 L+0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Iraq63c5,120$3,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,215.361,87348.4%906 W · 967 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa18c…d792backed Iraq62c5,000$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,10024058.8%141 W · 99 L+19.8wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x15ec…267dbacked Iraq25c5,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.9927845.7%127 W · 151 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Senegal41c4,938$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,937.925019.6%49 W · 201 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked Senegal44c4,750$2,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,682.522943.7%100 W · 129 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Iraq7c4,367$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.6921314.1%30 W · 183 L+14.3wins+0.07per pick7cpaid+135.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4931…6f58backed Senegal36c4,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,559.995545.5%25 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac1c…d8b5backed Iraq63c3,968$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50014734%50 W · 97 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed Senegal36c3,904$1,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,498.456445.3%29 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Senegal38c3,786$1,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,353.2537850.5%191 W · 187 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe00e…ea73backed Senegal67c3,736$2,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,249.8110732.7%35 W · 72 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Senegal36c3,633$1,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,341.192,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Iraq63c3,500$2,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20547643.3%206 W · 270 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Iraq65c3,500$2,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,274.9986452.7%455 W · 409 L+26.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc23d…82c8backed Senegal72c3,422$2,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.1532656.1%183 W · 143 L+29.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+29.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Iraq64c3,333$2,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,133.1114348.3%69 W · 74 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Senegal73c3,099$2,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.764,02738.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L-26.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Senegal72c3,030$2,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.4575335.6%268 W · 485 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Senegal52c3,000$1,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,427.599450%47 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Iraq63c3,000$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,89047144.8%211 W · 260 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Iraq63c3,000$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,89048441.9%203 W · 281 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee19…555ebacked Senegal33c3,000$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,009.986533.8%22 W · 43 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-33.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd7bb…449ebacked Senegal36c2,998$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,918.562744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Senegal60c2,822$1,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.641,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Senegal37c2,800$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,76438351.4%197 W · 186 L-1.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fd8…7749backed Senegal38c2,632$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,631.5816041.3%66 W · 94 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Iraq41c2,573$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.881,56339.8%622 W · 941 L-51.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Iraq37c2,538$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.61,43840.1%576 W · 862 L-40.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Iraq46c2,506$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,152.8118837.2%70 W · 118 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc229…1b74backed Senegal36c2,500$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6008858%51 W · 37 L+10.4wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+27.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Senegal68c2,211$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.012,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Iraq39c2,120$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.8787237.8%330 W · 542 L-39.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Iraq65c2,089$1,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,357.851,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Iraq63c2,087$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.847442.8%203 W · 271 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Senegal35c2,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,30089443.4%388 W · 506 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Senegal38c2,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,24033149.5%164 W · 167 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed Senegal51c2,000$1,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.9911638.8%45 W · 71 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+19.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Iraq38c1,965$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.511,38040.2%555 W · 825 L-51.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Iraq45c1,897$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.516641%68 W · 98 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe97…6347backed Senegal38c1,864$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,164.1712958.1%75 W · 54 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+25%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4520…9182backed Senegal55c1,818$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.1815146.4%70 W · 81 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc48…c120backed Iraq64c1,800$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.9737451.6%193 W · 181 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf055…02b5backed Senegal35c1,691$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,090.9926644%117 W · 149 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Iraq54c1,672$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.967640.8%31 W · 45 L-8.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-20.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeb1f…6a93backed Senegal33c1,661$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.083842.1%16 W · 22 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+44.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x46d4…30fcbacked Senegal36c1,652$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.0522032.3%71 W · 149 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ab3…afb7backed Iraq47c1,600$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7521546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68e3…109bbacked Senegal37c1,586$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.492623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Senegal39c1,579$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.0215048%72 W · 78 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc66a…ed6abacked Senegal43c1,575$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.8641968.3%286 W · 133 L+65.4wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+43.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x2c1a…5cb0backed Iraq64c1,570$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.7925537.6%96 W · 159 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Senegal35c1,500$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97511044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed Iraq62c1,500$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929.9912343.1%53 W · 70 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Senegal37c1,500$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.9950243.4%218 W · 284 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc82f…66a7backed Senegal35c1,500$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.9933235.5%118 W · 214 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…a96fbacked Senegal53c1,499$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.534344.2%19 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Iraq41c1,476$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.751,35438.9%527 W · 827 L-55.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d35…06b5backed Iraq64c1,448$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.4110251%52 W · 50 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cfe…c83cbacked Senegal72c1,448$1,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.2836234%123 W · 239 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd760…f7f5backed Senegal36c1,389$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.8910234.3%35 W · 67 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe991…48b1backed Senegal36c1,389$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.8933641.7%140 W · 196 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9438…3d6abacked Iraq64c1,381$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.175740.4%23 W · 34 L-9.7wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-32.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8503…6666backed Senegal74c1,349$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.742770.4%19 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Iraq45c1,343$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60065948.6%320 W · 339 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca4…348fbacked Senegal75c1,337$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.018143.2%35 W · 46 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Senegal37c1,300$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82235229.3%103 W · 249 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+20.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ce0…a65bbacked Iraq48c1,250$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60012448.4%60 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3a…d724backed Senegal36c1,250$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80021227.8%59 W · 153 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+37.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf81a…719abacked Senegal39c1,247$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.5113623.5%32 W · 104 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Senegal34c1,174$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.2422337.2%83 W · 140 L+20.1wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+28.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.