TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 202.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,833
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,074

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,833 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under29c1,090$318 inLost-$317.832,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Under7c634.52$44 inLost-$44.4227937.3%104 W · 175 L+57.6wins+0.21per pick17cpaid+187%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xa11f…1252backed Under22c319.23$70 inLost-$70.2320247.5%96 W · 106 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9b…7349backed Over80c300.27$240 inWon+$60.2721574.4%160 W · 55 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under13c288.96$37 inLost-$36.528,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under20c238.99$48 inLost-$47.825954.4%141 W · 118 L+34.1wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+68.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x61d3…189abacked Under22c214.95$47 inLost-$47.2921849.5%108 W · 110 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Under8c202$17 inLost-$17.1225045.6%114 W · 136 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Under22c185.64$41 inLost-$40.8455751.9%289 W · 268 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a7a…6c9abacked Under17c176.47$30 inLost-$302920.7%6 W · 23 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-44.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x630d…875abacked Under17c176.47$30 inLost-$30633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+95.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Under7c150$11 inLost-$10.531222.1%69 W · 243 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+79.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf609…e68bbacked Under24c146$35 inLost-$35.043946.2%18 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Under25c100.92$25 inLost-$2511239.3%44 W · 68 L-11.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-31%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2e2f…6884backed Over79c70.89$56 inWon+$14.891942.1%8 W · 11 L-4.9wins-0.26per pick68cpaid-40%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0115…ac79backed Over79c44.3$35 inWon+$9.35056%28 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7e0…c1bbbacked Over79c40$32 inWon+$8.4650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Over70c26.67$19 inWon+$871752%373 W · 344 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over78c22.18$17 inWon+$4.881,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Over78c18.55$14 inWon+$4.081,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 98. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.