Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Will UCLA win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdede50898455581d02871924b317401d49b05453ad4c39f6a8fec11b3591881f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $291,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $291,247 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x518f…c091backed Yes | 1c | 43,185$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 0c | 38,469$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.14 | 167 | 21%35 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2239…67abbacked Yes | 1c | 34,224$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 0c | 24,213$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.14 | 82 | 2.4%2 W · 80 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e06…e762backed Yes | 1c | 19,960$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…cd54backed Yes | 1c | 19,892$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 0c | 19,122$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb3…993bbacked Yes | 1c | 17,624$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb84…335ebacked Yes | 0c | 16,870$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 0c | 14,980$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf2…cfefbacked Yes | 1c | 14,612$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 13,619$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…e82ebacked Yes | 1c | 13,580$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21a…c0c6backed Yes | 1c | 12,874$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd1…a151backed Yes | 1c | 12,436$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…bf0ebacked Yes | 0c | 12,160$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 48 | 0%0 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985f…7a5bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,764$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5e…d655backed Yes | 1c | 10,821$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x390d…350bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,663$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8159…ed58backed Yes | 1c | 9,992$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1249…10cdbacked Yes | 1c | 8,718$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 1c | 8,645$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…ca2dbacked Yes | 1c | 8,306$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x048c…cf4ebacked Yes | 1c | 7,774$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115c…ead4backed Yes | 1c | 7,459$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0af…3b75backed Yes | 1c | 7,238$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6949…54dcbacked Yes | 1c | 6,772$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 6,738$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…5bd7backed Yes | 2c | 6,557$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 6,299$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 290 | 12.1%35 W · 255 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9449…d829backed Yes | 0c | 6,087$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12b…4181backed Yes | 2c | 6,038$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc1…84edbacked Yes | 1c | 5,655$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…7b83backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 0c | 4,668$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Yes | 1c | 4,587$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba39…0c87backed Yes | 1c | 4,566$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a62…8b90backed Yes | 0c | 4,360$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5282…82fcbacked Yes | 1c | 4,187$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…dfdabacked Yes | 1c | 3,943$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 365 | 35.9%131 W · 234 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x708e…8094backed Yes | 1c | 3,830$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a07…36f2backed Yes | 1c | 3,505$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d84…9fbabacked Yes | 1c | 3,434$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3129…22edbacked Yes | 1c | 3,372$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebd…700ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,190$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c0…dadabacked Yes | 1c | 3,133$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x364b…f9bebacked Yes | 0c | 3,119$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 3,103$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Yes | 1c | 3,069$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4b…df5abacked Yes | 1c | 2,938$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c4…78c6backed Yes | 1c | 2,777$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8261…982cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,658$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,561$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…ff08backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec6…15a6backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…2101backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…4d35backed Yes | 1c | 2,049$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf187…8908backed Yes | 2c | 2,008$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d17…f8bfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,003$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…1fe2backed Yes | 1c | 1,604$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc1…1449backed Yes | 1c | 1,490$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5a…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,479$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 1c | 1,302$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb4…abe5backed Yes | 2c | 1,240$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9821…b8d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,145$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdda…c74cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,134$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…e3f7backed Yes | 1c | 865.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 3c | 815.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 70. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will UCLA win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?this page
- Will Akron win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Alabama win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Auburn win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will BYU win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Cal Baptist win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Clemson win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Creighton win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Furman win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Georgia win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Gonzaga win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Hawaii win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will High Point win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Hofstra win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Howard win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Idaho win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Iowa win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Kennesaw State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Kentucky win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will LIU win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Lehigh win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Louisville win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will McNeese win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Miami (FL) win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Miami (OH) win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Yes won
- Will Missouri win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will NC State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Nebraska win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will North Carolina win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will North Dakota State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Northern Iowa win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Ohio State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Penn win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Prairie View A&M win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Queens win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will SMU win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Saint Louis win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Santa Clara win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Siena win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will South Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will St. Mary's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will TCU win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Tennessee State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Tennessee win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Texas A&M win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Texas Tech win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
- Will Texas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.