TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7894…d0ee

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
49
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: UFC, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 56 out of 100; worst NBA at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT3447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$283.18
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$24.96
Lakers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.27
Celtics vs. Knicksbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.08
Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.92
Spread: Hornets (-3.5)backed Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.89
Celtics vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Suns vs. Bucksbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$53
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Pistons vs. Heatbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.99
Knicks vs. Lakersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.95
Spread: Suns (-5.5)backed Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+108.3%+$52
Knicks vs. Nuggetsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+92.3%+$48
Spread: Hornets (-6.5)backed Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$54
Spread: Celtics (-15.5)backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$53
Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+100%+$100
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+92.3%+$92.31
Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+108.3%+$108.33
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Spread: Magic (-15.5)backed Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$49.99
Spread: Knicks (-2.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+96.1%+$49
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$57
Clippers vs. Warriorsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+96.1%+$49
Celtics vs. Bucksbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+35.1%+$26
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+51.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
UFC — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Azamat Murzakanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$493Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$493.17
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Aaron Pico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$55.06
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early Prelims)backed Tatiana Suarez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$78.08
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Charles Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+203%+$67
UFC 326: Reinier de Ridder vs. Caio Borralho (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Reinier de Ridder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$31
UFC 326: Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Raul Rosas Jr. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+49.3%+$33
UFC 326: Cody Durden vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Nyamjargal Tumendemberel · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+75.4%+$43
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Kavanagh · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+203%+$66.98
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Hernandez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$80
UFC Fight Night: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Uros Medic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+185.7%+$65
UFC Fight Night: Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Costa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+42.9%+$30
All 11 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+85.2%+$46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$50.35
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.