TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc1fb…0be6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
38
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Champions League, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 53 out of 100; worst Premier League at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST1471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-01-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+63.9%+$63.93
FIFA Club World Cup: Real Madrid vs. Dortmund (To Advance) backed Real Madrid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$10.52
FIFA Club World Cup: PSG vs. Bayern (To Advance) backed PSG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$20
FIFA Club World Cup: Palmeiras vs. Chelsea (To Advance) backed Chelsea · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$8.08
FIFA Club World Cup: Fluminense vs. Al Hilal (To Advance)backed Al Hilal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
FIFA Club World Cup: Real Madrid vs. Juventus (To Advance) backed Real Madrid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$12.63
Real Madrid vs. Juventus: 3+ Goals Scored? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Manchester City vs. Al Hilal: 3+ Goals Scored?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+43.9%+$8.78
FIFA Club World Cup: Inter Milan vs. Fluminense (To Advance)backed Inter Milan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
FIFA Club World Cup: Flamengo vs. Bayern Munich (To Advance)backed Bayern Munich · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$10.54
FIFA Club World Cup: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo (To Advance)backed Botafogo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Al Hilal beat Pachuca?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$23.49
Will Real Madrid beat RB Salzburg?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$5.64
Will Manchester City beat Juventus?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$32.73
All 14 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 27, 2026, EST1250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trail Blazers vs. Celticsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$27
Warriors vs. Timberwolvesbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+194.1%+$33
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+394.9%+$100.2
Nets vs. Knicksbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Suns vs. Netsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+28.2%+$5.64
Jazz vs. Grizzliesbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$2,088Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+244.8%+$5,112
Knicks vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$524Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$524.16
Warriors vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$432Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$432
Spurs vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$434Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+61.3%+$266
Lakers vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$430Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$430
Suns vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Cavaliers vs. Pacersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+56.3%+$11.25
All 12 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Patriots vs. Broncosbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+49.3%+$9.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+48.5%+$14.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Francesca Muñoz win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$14.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.