TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd5a7…9064

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
37
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Premier League, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 57 out of 100; worst NBA at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST1315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.28per pick43cpaid-69.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$27
Nuggets vs. Pelicansbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+85.2%+$46
Timberwolves vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$57
Mavericks vs. Bullsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$43
Clippers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$61
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$39
Thunder vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$37
Clippers vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$42
Pelicans vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$44
Lakers vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$33
Cavaliers vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$34
Hawks vs. Raptorsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$44
Knicks vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+108.3%+$52
All 13 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-43.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$53
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-01-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$49
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-01-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$46
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$29
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-01-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$42
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+85.2%+$46
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-01-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$46
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-01-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+81.8%+$45
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+96.1%+$49
All 10 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+68.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+126.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Senegal vs. Egypt end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+47.1%+$32
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$40
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.