TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,712
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,421

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,712 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdcc0…6872backed No52c1,282$666 inLost-$666.0816656.6%94 W · 72 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcad4…317abacked Yes66c378.79$250 inWon+$128.7910246.1%47 W · 55 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc6b…8115backed Yes31c321.88$100 inWon+$221.8822914%32 W · 197 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7a2…3f53backed Yes55c160$88 inWon+$725743.9%25 W · 32 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ca9…0c3fbacked Yes21c119.05$25 inWon+$94.051225%3 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8635…003ebacked No18c118.09$21 inLost-$21.195052%26 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+43.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdf1…2960backed Yes21c95.24$20 inWon+$75.2416531.5%52 W · 113 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x935d…72f4backed Yes60c83.33$50 inWon+$33.3311949.6%59 W · 60 L+9.1wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+21.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No69c78.87$54 inLost-$54.52,57646.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L+35.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa87a…5403backed Yes75c66.67$50 inWon+$16.67450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd41…8761backed Yes25c50$13 inWon+$37.530040.3%121 W · 179 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf6c…8ce4backed No75c50$38 inLost-$37.51172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fe…979bbacked Yes50c40$20 inWon+$2018137.6%68 W · 113 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c13…25abbacked Yes33c39.39$13 inWon+$26.391533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+33.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked No52c31$16 inLost-$16.2124541.2%101 W · 144 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb48…6ad1backed No65c30.5$20 inLost-$19.822458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+284.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d5b…1578backed No66c30.31$20 inLost-$2023858%138 W · 100 L+14.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x49d4…5696backed Yes76c26.14$20 inWon+$6.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-56.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2be2…5fa6backed Yes75c26$19 inWon+$6.61323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-49%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No69c15$10 inLost-$10.3545472.9%331 W · 123 L+18.8wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.