TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,827
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,117

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,827 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over22c2,998$665 inWon+$2,332.874,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe1e…7ee3backed Under75c1,213$909 inLost-$909.516165.8%106 W · 55 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe70c…17c5backed Over8c1,116$84 inWon+$1,031.9733438.6%129 W · 205 L-17.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Over25c1,000$250 inWon+$75070648.2%340 W · 366 L+0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Under74c760.34$563 inLost-$562.651,53649.1%754 W · 782 L+32.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under75c628.95$471 inLost-$471.443,21347.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e3d…85abbacked Under75c516$387 inLost-$386.736448.6%177 W · 187 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c3…ac23backed Over26c499.89$130 inWon+$369.9295739.5%378 W · 579 L-18.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over25c441.8$110 inWon+$331.352,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under75c342.37$255 inLost-$255.073,07747%1,447 W · 1,630 L-11.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Under75c333.33$250 inLost-$2507471.6%53 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over17c271.26$46 inWon+$225.4848328%135 W · 348 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Under75c134.85$101 inLost-$101.1447049.4%232 W · 238 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87cb…643abacked Under74c100.78$75 inLost-$74.5820942.6%89 W · 120 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c75…c91fbacked Over26c76.92$20 inWon+$56.9210737.4%40 W · 67 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Over26c73.08$19 inWon+$54.0829338.2%112 W · 181 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75b0…0c9bbacked Under74c67.57$50 inLost-$506473.4%47 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Over27c67.56$18 inWon+$49.211,47544.9%663 W · 812 L-4.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ef9…11b4backed Under75c66.67$50 inLost-$5027767.9%188 W · 89 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x257d…6f86backed Under75c65.04$49 inLost-$48.782166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Over26c61.66$16 inWon+$45.831,31348.9%642 W · 671 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc123…ae89backed Over25c60.64$15 inWon+$45.642630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Over26c52.67$14 inWon+$39.151,39046.3%644 W · 746 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over25c51.78$13 inWon+$39.048,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f7…610abacked Over26c49.35$13 inWon+$36.526434.4%22 W · 42 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc730…c568backed Under75c46.66$35 inLost-$3566056.8%375 W · 285 L+34.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed47…5d79backed Under75c40$30 inLost-$302040%8 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under75c33.47$25 inLost-$24.943,28649.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L+6.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under74c30$22 inLost-$22.232855.8%183 W · 145 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe840…733cbacked Under75c28.92$22 inLost-$21.6925857%147 W · 111 L-1.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaebc…41f2backed Under75c26.67$20 inLost-$206361.9%39 W · 24 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+23.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under74c23.99$18 inLost-$17.7542332.9%139 W · 284 L-17.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Under69c20.61$14 inLost-$14.193412.9%10 W · 331 L-132.4wins-0.39per pick42cpaid-94%equal weight10-0.36 edge/pick
0x2176…bc30backed Under75c13.72$10 inLost-$10.2227663%174 W · 102 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ad6…eed6backed Under75c13.72$10 inLost-$10.2222957.6%132 W · 97 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under78c13.67$11 inLost-$10.7142554.4%231 W · 194 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f04…2392backed Under76c13.54$10 inLost-$10.2823866.8%159 W · 79 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.