Fifa International · resolved market
Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf853096405e4b00e808e2a3d7449fffe3b88ed3e40a7531e65db5ec33b6ebb5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 52c | 3,228$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551.14 | 431 | 45.2%195 W · 236 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed06…72e7backed Over | 47c | 1,420$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.4 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 53c | 1,014$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.52 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked Under | 67c | 1,001$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.81 | 825 | 37.1%306 W · 519 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x580e…38cdbacked Over | 52c | 970.32$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 42c | 797.65$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.19 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 37c | 648.38$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.87 | 1,669 | 41.6%694 W · 975 L | +15.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f3…3ca0backed Under | 51c | 631.37$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.37 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5724…b563backed Under | 36c | 556.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.76 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 366 | 31.1%114 W · 252 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 317 | 28.1%89 W · 228 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 46c | 438.78$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.84 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 53c | 426$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.98 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9516…0bcbbacked Over | 49c | 404.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 562 | 40.6%228 W · 334 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…1d90backed Over | 48c | 378.77$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.81 | 179 | 48.6%87 W · 92 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 47c | 265$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.55 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 48c | 250.48$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.36 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 47%62 W · 70 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Over | 53c | 188.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Over | 48c | 183.33$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 624 | 52.7%329 W · 295 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Over | 52c | 182.71$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.91 | 512 | 28.9%148 W · 364 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e9…ee46backed Over | 56c | 176.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 51c | 129.25$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 46c | 109$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f6…bab8backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 50c | 101$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 1,354 | 38.9%527 W · 827 L | -55.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Over | 52c | 100.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 534 | 48.5%259 W · 275 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…425ebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…ac32backed Over | 56c | 96.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 141 | 48.2%68 W · 73 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 50c | 95.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 735 | 36.3%267 W · 468 L | -32.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7f…25bdbacked Under | 50c | 94.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 209 | 32.5%68 W · 141 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 52c | 93.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 50c | 73.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 1,563 | 39.8%622 W · 941 L | -51.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 45c | 69.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 53c | 67.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 1,293 | 53.6%693 W · 600 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 54c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218b…625abacked Under | 43c | 57.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 49c | 56.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6e…8b2dbacked Over | 49c | 53.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c1…ddd6backed Over | 58c | 51.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 199 | 32.2%64 W · 135 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…dba6backed Over | 49c | 46.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 35c | 45.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 53c | 41.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 51c | 36.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 866 | 56.4%488 W · 378 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Over | 46c | 27.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 736 | 26.5%195 W · 541 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…f1b7backed Over | 67c | 27.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 950 | 37.5%356 W · 594 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a5…406bbacked Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…f116backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Over | 48c | 22.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe38…cb63backed Over | 57c | 20.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5this page
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to AdvanceParaguay won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?Yes won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?Yes won
- Spread: Germany (-1.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Germany (-2.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Germany (-3.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Germany (-4.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Germany (-5.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)Germany won
- Spread: Paraguay (-2.5)Germany won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.