Spread: Germany (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35e39a8d417b5ff0b7778fd1f4e38246473f2adca419dfa3b9c1fa8403317bbb

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Paraguayof Germany, Paraguay
Resolved: Jun 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $187,611
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $184,332

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,611 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x94d7…bef5backed Germany	12c	20,000$2,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,400	263	20.5%54 W · 209 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Germany	10c	19,840$2,076 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,075.73	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Germany	12c	15,184$1,822 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,822.08	89	32.6%29 W · 60 L	-10.7wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xee67…ef38backed Germany	12c	15,000$1,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,800	93	23.7%22 W · 71 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Germany	11c	9,000$990 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$990	744	47.8%356 W · 388 L	+11.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Germany	12c	8,333$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	250	19.6%49 W · 201 L	-5.6wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Germany	11c	7,500$825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$825	1,536	49.1%754 W · 782 L	+32.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd61…0002backed Germany	11c	4,000$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440	65	43.1%28 W · 37 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf8a…2d3cbacked Germany	11c	3,636$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.96	262	16%42 W · 220 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+35%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Germany	5c	2,860$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.49	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Germany	11c	2,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	352	29.3%103 W · 249 L	+14.0wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf747…7d29backed Germany	11c	1,818$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	87	49.4%43 W · 44 L	+4.3wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Germany	12c	1,667$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	894	43.4%388 W · 506 L	+18.6wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9865…57acbacked Germany	12c	1,667$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	109	11%12 W · 97 L	-9.4wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-66%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2adc…7e50backed Germany	12c	1,667$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Germany	12c	1,561$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.33	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Germany	8c	1,352$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.85	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x98be…5794backed Germany	12c	1,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	115	31.3%36 W · 79 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Germany	12c	930.83$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.7	144	28.5%41 W · 103 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Germany	12c	838.75$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	315	20.3%64 W · 251 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Germany	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	133	45.1%60 W · 73 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7879…3653backed Germany	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	227	49.3%112 W · 115 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5685…061bbacked Germany	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+1.3wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Germany	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	301	42.5%128 W · 173 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ac9…92d3backed Germany	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	226	22.1%50 W · 176 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	+48.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c86…6a80backed Germany	12c	801.28$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	148	39.9%59 W · 89 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Germany	12c	785.77$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.99	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d76…92b5backed Germany	12c	765.73$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	94	28.7%27 W · 67 L	+7.6wins	+0.08per pick	21cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a70…0519backed Germany	13c	682.46$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.72	61	16.4%10 W · 51 L	-5.6wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0823…ec6abacked Germany	13c	671.55$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.3	431	39%168 W · 263 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Germany	11c	599.99$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	471	27.8%131 W · 340 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Germany	12c	542.33$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.08	2,271	39.5%896 W · 1,375 L	+10.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c3…ac23backed Germany	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	957	39.5%378 W · 579 L	-18.4wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcda7…d089backed Germany	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc89e…6a30backed Germany	3c	499.98$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d71…8da4backed Germany	11c	499.8$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.98	136	41.9%57 W · 79 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37a0…8423backed Germany	13c	475.61$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	189	42.3%80 W · 109 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Germany	12c	425$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Germany	11c	362.28$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.7	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4e1…34a5backed Germany	13c	297.31$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.65	66	33.3%22 W · 44 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x541c…a7ecbacked Germany	13c	290.69$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.79	69	18.8%13 W · 56 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-38%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked Germany	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	366	31.1%114 W · 252 L	+18.2wins	+0.05per pick	26cpaid	+34.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa14d…45d1backed Germany	11c	250$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	127	24.4%31 W · 96 L	-10.7wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe80f…3354backed Germany	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	317	28.1%89 W · 228 L	+8.9wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Germany	12c	222$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.64	213	14.1%30 W · 183 L	+14.3wins	+0.07per pick	7cpaid	+135.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3036…15c2backed Germany	12c	208.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	135	40%54 W · 81 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd41b…920ebacked Germany	12c	208.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b02…083abacked Germany	12c	208.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	62	25.8%16 W · 46 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x68ef…89cabacked Germany	12c	208.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	281	43.8%123 W · 158 L	+9.4wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x387a…8eaebacked Germany	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	329	28%92 W · 237 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a70…5e45backed Germany	12c	181.39$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.77	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb72d…f11ebacked Germany	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	172	23.3%40 W · 132 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf91…92bdbacked Germany	13c	159$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.67	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3607…c427backed Germany	13c	157.15$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.43	138	33.3%46 W · 92 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f4…2014backed Germany	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.14per pick	36cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0459…0fcbbacked Germany	12c	125$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	267	20.6%55 W · 212 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3c04…7a6fbacked Germany	11c	118.18$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4844…8ddabacked Germany	12c	116.67$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	80	35%28 W · 52 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-15%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb68c…7ef8backed Germany	13c	115.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	110	31.8%35 W · 75 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6327…58bdbacked Germany	11c	107.73$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.85	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.24per pick	42cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b7a…86cfbacked Germany	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	234	29.1%68 W · 166 L	-10.4wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1646…2f81backed Germany	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	167	47.3%79 W · 88 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab6b…521bbacked Germany	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	184	26.1%48 W · 136 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd66…48e4backed Germany	12c	99.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	101	48.5%49 W · 52 L	+8.1wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b90…672ebacked Germany	12c	86.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.35	185	48.1%89 W · 96 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Germany (-3.5)this page
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 0.5Over won
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5Under won
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5Under won
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5Over won
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5Over won
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5Under won
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5Under won
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5Under won
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5Under won
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5Under won
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5Under won
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5Under won
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5Over won
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5Under won
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5Under won
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to AdvanceParaguay won
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?Yes won
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?Yes won
Spread: Germany (-1.5)Paraguay won
Spread: Germany (-2.5)Paraguay won
Spread: Germany (-4.5)Paraguay won
Spread: Germany (-5.5)Paraguay won
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)Germany won
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5)Germany won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Germany (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event