TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,040
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,385

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,040 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b19…1ad9backed Over23c1,299$300 inLost-$3001118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+30.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b7f…d56cbacked Under79c1,100$869 inWon+$231.1382537.1%306 W · 519 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over20c914.7$180 inLost-$180.132,62641.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L-11.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed Under77c724.4$558 inWon+$166.6185851.2%439 W · 419 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Over22c453.56$101 inLost-$101.263,07747%1,447 W · 1,630 L-11.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked Over20c250$50 inLost-$5036631.1%114 W · 252 L+18.2wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+34.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe80f…3354backed Over20c250$50 inLost-$5031728.1%89 W · 228 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over27c249.76$67 inLost-$66.838,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e1…99dbbacked Under73c229.56$168 inWon+$61.9858049.1%285 W · 295 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over22c117.44$26 inLost-$25.842,80446.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L-27.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Over21c100$21 inLost-$212,57646.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L+35.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd614…0fc0backed Under79c98.85$78 inWon+$20.8532145.5%146 W · 175 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over21c66.42$14 inLost-$13.951,66941.6%694 W · 975 L+15.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over22c63$14 inLost-$13.613,28649.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L+6.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a38…068ebacked Over25c40$10 inLost-$104327.9%12 W · 31 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c44…2b9bbacked Over25c40$10 inLost-$101323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under75c34.44$26 inWon+$8.612,79656.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L-9.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5c4…74bbbacked Under79c24.67$19 inWon+$5.186048.3%29 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Under77c18$14 inWon+$4.142,17138.2%829 W · 1,342 L-36.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.