Fifa International · resolved market
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68bb7a15a8ffbe4d98b05aeb7c31d4a060e0aef83802363b66c34db785f369d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8e2…ec79backed Over | 17c | 26,867$4,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,651.83 | 87 | 23%20 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 7c | 8,922$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.39 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Over | 17c | 6,666$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.22 | 320 | 29.4%94 W · 226 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 16c | 6,004$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.64 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…1695backed Over | 16c | 3,125$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 372 | 23.9%89 W · 283 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…a6babacked Over | 12c | 1,260$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 352 | 44%155 W · 197 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488e…ab99backed Over | 2c | 1,213$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed Over | 15c | 1,033$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 317 | 28.1%89 W · 228 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Over | 15c | 1,027$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 366 | 31.1%114 W · 252 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 16c | 972.44$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.59 | 894 | 43.4%388 W · 506 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 16c | 963.63$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.72 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 15c | 687.28$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.61 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 16c | 663.26$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.87 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Over | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 462 | 23.2%107 W · 355 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6d…2f1abacked Over | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 150 | 34.7%52 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0886…b3a6backed Over | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 329 | 22.5%74 W · 255 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a01…1a3cbacked Over | 10c | 577.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 242 | 46.7%113 W · 129 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fc…2715backed Over | 16c | 425$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 16c | 365.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb6…519dbacked Over | 17c | 328.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…7d20backed Over | 10c | 325.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d9…5442backed Over | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 314 | 35.7%112 W · 202 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…ac23backed Over | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 957 | 39.5%378 W · 579 L | -18.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 16c | 199.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 977 | 42%410 W · 567 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 6c | 196.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ea…1092backed Over | 15c | 191.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 15c | 156.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 1,240 | 43.7%542 W · 698 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,354 | 38.9%527 W · 827 L | -55.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49e1…a8bdbacked Over | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 17.6%22 W · 103 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 13c | 120.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe462…e436backed Over | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 229 | 19.2%44 W · 185 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 16c | 82.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 15c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,293 | 53.6%693 W · 600 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5this page
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to AdvanceParaguay won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?Yes won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?Yes won
- Spread: Germany (-1.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Germany (-2.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Germany (-3.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Germany (-4.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Germany (-5.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)Germany won
- Spread: Paraguay (-2.5)Germany won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.