TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$106,767
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$112,727

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,767 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Over2c36,773$851 inLost-$851.284,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over3c8,720$242 inLost-$242.364,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Over1c5,454$58 inLost-$57.852,63432.9%867 W · 1,767 L+43.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over3c5,139$179 inLost-$178.763,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Over1c3,858$56 inLost-$56.2865737.4%246 W · 411 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2305…04f2backed Over3c1,190$40 inLost-$404415.9%7 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x191e…dd9ebacked Over3c1,114$37 inLost-$378831.8%28 W · 60 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdec4…046fbacked Over3c805.98$25 inLost-$2534526.1%90 W · 255 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over3c721.44$24 inLost-$23.988,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad1…35d0backed Over4c561.38$20 inLost-$20478.5%4 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over3c519.97$16 inLost-$15.62,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1617…d790backed Over3c518.1$18 inLost-$17.6624843.1%107 W · 141 L-0.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Over4c432.43$16 inLost-$1643819.2%84 W · 354 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8046…6ea0backed Over4c368.75$14 inLost-$148723%20 W · 67 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick25cpaid+38.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Over4c318.89$11 inLost-$11.4817432.8%57 W · 117 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb02…0f88backed Over4c310$11 inLost-$10.98224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-54.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.