Fifa International · resolved market
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd218ef5141d36b2d649bf4a5dd12faa0a0f603db36f999166e52809ecea94f09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b4e…5c01backed Over | 36c | 2,970$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.61 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…00fabacked Under | 62c | 1,492$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.94 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 32c | 1,268$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.88 | 858 | 51.2%439 W · 419 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83c…e423backed Over | 46c | 1,065$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.65 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Under | 62c | 991.61$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.81 | 261 | 55.2%144 W · 117 L | +13.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Under | 65c | 773.25$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.74 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Under | 53c | 565.22$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.65 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked Under | 66c | 533.33$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Under | 63c | 464.96$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.96 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc386…386fbacked Under | 55c | 451.54$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.19 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Under | 65c | 430$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.5 | 470 | 49.4%232 W · 238 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Under | 61c | 275$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.25 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 67c | 262.43$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.24 | 1,559 | 52.4%817 W · 742 L | +97.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Under | 67c | 259.99$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 253 | 52.6%133 W · 120 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 67c | 208.01$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.81 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 38c | 204.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.16 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84a2…e0b6backed Over | 33c | 158$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Under | 67c | 154.48$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Over | 33c | 149.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd2…0abfbacked Over | 32c | 149.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 35c | 89.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…fc6dbacked Under | 56c | 86.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | +14.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 67c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 64c | 64.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 866 | 56.4%488 W · 378 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Over | 32c | 41.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 451 | 45%203 W · 248 L | +22.3wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…98a7backed Over | 54c | 38.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -8.9wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…6ee5backed Over | 32c | 36.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…2c8dbacked Over | 36c | 35.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 434 | 60.4%262 W · 172 L | +33.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59d8…ad87backed Over | 36c | 35.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 37c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Under | 62c | 33.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Under | 79c | 20.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 480 | 55.2%265 W · 215 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 63c | 17.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1,293 | 53.6%693 W · 600 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked Under | 65c | 16.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 785 | 59.7%469 W · 316 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 0.5this page
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to AdvanceParaguay won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?Yes won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?Yes won
- Spread: Germany (-1.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Germany (-2.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Germany (-3.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Germany (-4.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Germany (-5.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)Germany won
- Spread: Paraguay (-2.5)Germany won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.