TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$134,764
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$150,646

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,764 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc291…5d74backed Under14c26,954$3,727 inLost-$3,727.384,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfde6…7ed6backed Under8c25,000$2,100 inLost-$2,10042710.3%44 W · 383 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under11c13,482$1,475 inLost-$1,474.644,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Under3c6,735$215 inLost-$214.922,63432.9%867 W · 1,767 L+43.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under9c6,547$566 inLost-$566.063,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Under9c4,900$441 inLost-$4411,53649.1%754 W · 782 L+32.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe987…f0e1backed Under9c3,000$270 inLost-$27038026.6%101 W · 279 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f5d…80a3backed Over79c2,911$2,300 inWon+$611.393865.8%25 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d3a…d724backed Under10c2,500$250 inLost-$25021227.8%59 W · 153 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+37.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under14c1,812$259 inLost-$259.262,97328%831 W · 2,142 L-132.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39c9…7debbacked Under20c1,500$300 inLost-$30010340.8%42 W · 61 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under9c1,251$109 inLost-$109.413,07747%1,447 W · 1,630 L-11.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under9c1,250$107 inLost-$107.173,21347.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b7f…d56cbacked Under21c605$127 inLost-$127.0582537.1%306 W · 519 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x729d…e139backed Over79c600$476 inWon+$124.369573.7%70 W · 25 L+15.1wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+37.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed Under21c516.63$108 inLost-$108.4964850.6%328 W · 320 L-13.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f20…186bbacked Under10c500$50 inLost-$5012417.7%22 W · 102 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick17cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Under8c450$38 inLost-$38.131,24043.7%542 W · 698 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked Under20c350$71 inLost-$70.535034.3%120 W · 230 L-24.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-33.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under17c316.5$52 inLost-$52.231,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3561…f1b7backed Under9c315.86$29 inLost-$28.5795037.5%356 W · 594 L-1.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d7a…751abacked Under15c214.79$32 inLost-$31.6173234.6%253 W · 479 L-22.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bea…a7e6backed Over78c209.03$163 inWon+$45.9917659.7%105 W · 71 L+25.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+36.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x39aa…7143backed Under9c200$18 inLost-$183735.1%13 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under10c194.62$19 inLost-$19.281,71135.2%603 W · 1,108 L-68.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under8c169.97$14 inLost-$14.393,28649.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L+6.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under12c166.56$20 inLost-$20.322,62641.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L-11.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5088…cfc5backed Under21c143.33$30 inLost-$3015440.3%62 W · 92 L+11.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+14.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under9c143.01$13 inLost-$12.871,87348.4%906 W · 967 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a6d…9b6dbacked Under16c133.33$21 inLost-$21.336543.1%28 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39b2…157cbacked Under10c119.68$12 inLost-$11.9717047.6%81 W · 89 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa278…3369backed Under10c113$11 inLost-$11.31,11124.3%270 W · 841 L-32.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4544…7db1backed Over78c101.14$78 inWon+$22.662277.3%17 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa03e…727abacked Under18c100$18 inLost-$1823145.9%106 W · 125 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6087…61e8backed Under14c100$14 inLost-$148627.9%24 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa62a…0fbcbacked Over78c62$48 inWon+$13.64862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick72cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd170…a9d9backed Over80c29.96$24 inWon+$5.9919040.5%77 W · 113 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.