Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa750532845667d39aacae4957650b47eb55ebded965ad38a0b5da88a2a138321
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Germanyof Paraguay, Germany
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $634,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $723,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $634,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Paraguay | 4c | 66,209$2,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,801.19 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e0…024ebacked Paraguay | 2c | 50,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Paraguay | 4c | 35,289$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.72 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…7ed6backed Paraguay | 2c | 21,827$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.23 | 427 | 10.3%44 W · 383 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Paraguay | 1c | 18,963$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.93 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Paraguay | 3c | 12,000$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Paraguay | 2c | 10,833$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.52 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Paraguay | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,536 | 49.1%754 W · 782 L | +32.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Paraguay | 2c | 9,682$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.62 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa850…9b11backed Paraguay | 2c | 7,770$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.05 | 152 | 29.6%45 W · 107 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Paraguay | 2c | 5,150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Paraguay | 2c | 4,181$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.23 | 372 | 23.4%87 W · 285 L | -25.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Paraguay | 5c | 4,171$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.72 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Paraguay | 1c | 3,843$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 1,627 | 32.1%523 W · 1,104 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…4005backed Paraguay | 1c | 3,500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Paraguay | 1c | 3,165$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…f1b7backed Paraguay | 2c | 3,068$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 950 | 37.5%356 W · 594 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed Paraguay | 1c | 2,277$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 96 | 8.3%8 W · 88 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…4418backed Paraguay | 6c | 2,155$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 124 | 28.2%35 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Paraguay | 6c | 1,972$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.53 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked Paraguay | 5c | 1,857$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Paraguay | 2c | 1,837$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72e…c780backed Paraguay | 6c | 1,593$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…657bbacked Paraguay | 2c | 1,549$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 306 | 7.8%24 W · 282 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38a…3293backed Paraguay | 7c | 1,452$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Paraguay | 3c | 1,331$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…1760backed Paraguay | 2c | 1,309$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 258 | 44.6%115 W · 143 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Paraguay | 2c | 1,218$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked Paraguay | 6c | 1,056$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…7cedbacked Paraguay | 6c | 1,027$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.59 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…bfabbacked Paraguay | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Paraguay | 2c | 856.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 423 | 32.9%139 W · 284 L | -17.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Paraguay | 3c | 800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 455 | 36.9%168 W · 287 L | -26.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Paraguay | 7c | 741.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 294 | 63.3%186 W · 108 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Paraguay | 2c | 726.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 174 | 32.8%57 W · 117 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58e…bf44backed Paraguay | 6c | 662$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…61f9backed Paraguay | 3c | 628.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…dd9ebacked Paraguay | 6c | 613.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Paraguay | 2c | 605.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 206 | 38.8%80 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c1…473ebacked Paraguay | 2c | 555$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 513 | 15.6%80 W · 433 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed Paraguay | 2c | 551.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 248 | 43.1%107 W · 141 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x341f…0442backed Paraguay | 6c | 422.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 20%30 W · 120 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Paraguay | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcff1…f8debacked Paraguay | 6c | 288.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 91 | 31.9%29 W · 62 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7a…751abacked Paraguay | 6c | 198.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 732 | 34.6%253 W · 479 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef3…ebb0backed Paraguay | 6c | 192.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)this page
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to AdvanceParaguay won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?Yes won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?Yes won
- Spread: Germany (-1.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Germany (-2.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Germany (-3.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Germany (-4.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Germany (-5.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Paraguay (-2.5)Germany won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.