Fifa International · resolved market
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e092978cba0c7aa1f6eb4261ac7c52c45903c613f0e25bb77b6e2a5f47c4004
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $254,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $331,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $254,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 6c | 17,946$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.79 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 6c | 10,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…653cbacked Over | 8c | 5,100$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Over | 7c | 4,774$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.17 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +220.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 8c | 4,722$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.73 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 3c | 3,686$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.17 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Over | 9c | 3,150$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.5 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 4c | 3,053$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 6c | 2,355$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 372 | 23.4%87 W · 285 L | -25.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 3c | 1,887$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf16…464ebacked Over | 8c | 1,815$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.23 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 5c | 1,815$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.02 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 4c | 1,627$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae76…2763backed Over | 9c | 1,333$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 186 | 26.3%49 W · 137 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 3c | 1,320$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0886…b3a6backed Over | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 329 | 22.5%74 W · 255 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…c120backed Over | 6c | 1,100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 374 | 51.6%193 W · 181 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 2c | 935$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Over | 8c | 925.83$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.07 | 1,313 | 48.9%642 W · 671 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe668…8a94backed Over | 8c | 725$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc1…0c67backed Over | 8c | 677$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x494e…d3dbbacked Over | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 389 | 24.4%95 W · 294 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c12…62ccbacked Over | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Over | 8c | 620.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 1,390 | 46.3%644 W · 746 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6f…d024backed Over | 6c | 549.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 774 | 33.1%256 W · 518 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…a02dbacked Over | 8c | 525$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 257 | 37%95 W · 162 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Over | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 366 | 31.1%114 W · 252 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x786d…b89bbacked Over | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 522 | 17.4%91 W · 431 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed Over | 5c | 499.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 317 | 28.1%89 W · 228 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe34a…f5f0backed Over | 3c | 458$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 3c | 398.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…943ebacked Over | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Over | 8c | 258.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 423 | 32.9%139 W · 284 L | -17.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0367…e7fbbacked Over | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387a…8eaebacked Over | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 329 | 28%92 W · 237 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…08a6backed Over | 8c | 181.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab0…b670backed Over | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5this page
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5Over won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5Under won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to AdvanceParaguay won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?Yes won
- Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?Yes won
- Spread: Germany (-1.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Germany (-2.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Germany (-3.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Germany (-4.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Germany (-5.5)Paraguay won
- Spread: Paraguay (-1.5)Germany won
- Spread: Paraguay (-2.5)Germany won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.