TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf911…0596

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
39
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Premier League, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 54 out of 100; worst MLB at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT2634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-49%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.4
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$463Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$462.59
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.7
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons backed Cavs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+109%+$73
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.8
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$10.54
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$59
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$652Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+50.6%+$330.17
Pistons vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$22.77
Pistons vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+56.6%+$9.06
Timberwolves vs. Clippersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+35.1%+$7.03
Spurs vs. Raptorsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+40.8%+$12.25
Nuggets vs. Pistonsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10.32
Celtics vs. Pistonsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$10.1
Trail Blazers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+25%+$2.5
Knicks vs. Pistonsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$11.8
Pistons vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$18.4
Pistons vs. Clippersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$10.08
Spurs vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$13.6
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.4
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$58.47
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+30.2%+$4.64
Pistons vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2024, EST-100%-$11.44
Bucks vs. Cavaliersbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$20.48
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$17.3
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$21.75
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Mar 26, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Italy win on 2026-03-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$8.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+26.9%+$4.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$21.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$35
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipeibacked South Korea · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.9
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.