TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,220
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,428

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,220 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa710…23c4backed Yes55c5,000$2,750 inWon+$2,25032653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed No45c4,352$1,958 inLost-$1,958.3171547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40b4…1483backed Yes54c1,839$1,000 inWon+$839.1314045.7%64 W · 76 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes53c1,818$967 inWon+$850.821,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No45c1,411$635 inLost-$634.992,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked No47c1,166$550 inLost-$55027746.6%129 W · 148 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No46c1,003$463 inLost-$463.1233049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No46c876.73$406 inLost-$405.541,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked No47c580$273 inLost-$272.624949%122 W · 127 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Yes53c305.66$162 inWon+$143.6614443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0fd…a91ebacked Yes58c259.31$150 inWon+$109.319353.8%50 W · 43 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes56c248.43$140 inWon+$108.4330055.7%167 W · 133 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb94…a015backed No42c219.99$92 inLost-$92.44360.5%26 W · 17 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+41.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed No47c203.22$96 inLost-$95.521,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No44c196.55$86 inLost-$86.4856050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa65c…509dbacked Yes54c185.19$100 inWon+$85.192748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5d2c…cd4ebacked Yes53c165.51$87 inWon+$78.511560%9 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No42c156.75$66 inLost-$65.8479650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xadf0…00fbbacked No47c134.46$63 inLost-$63.22445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Yes56c134$75 inWon+$58.9678445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7987…884abacked No45c111.11$50 inLost-$5025850%129 W · 129 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed Yes51c99.96$51 inWon+$48.9811852.5%62 W · 56 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Yes52c95.4$50 inWon+$45.434849.7%173 W · 175 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x29db…19c3backed Yes52c94.43$49 inWon+$44.931540%6 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes54c91.31$49 inWon+$423557.1%20 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88a2…68a0backed Yes51c79.99$41 inWon+$39.215351%78 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac65…cfe6backed No50c78.45$39 inLost-$393473.5%25 W · 9 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick59cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5bd2…aafebacked Yes52c57.55$30 inWon+$27.552147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked No48c55$26 inLost-$26.410943.1%47 W · 62 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No48c49.99$24 inLost-$246349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbcf…20aebacked Yes54c46.3$25 inWon+$21.328943.3%125 W · 164 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c0…5fc2backed Yes54c46.3$25 inWon+$21.314349.7%71 W · 72 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fd6…81f6backed Yes54c45.65$25 inWon+$211782.4%14 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick73cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked No46c42.11$20 inLost-$19.5812150.4%61 W · 60 L-0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc82…a7c8backed No50c40.38$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2eb6…d381backed Yes53c37.74$20 inWon+$17.74728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-51.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5eb6…9e4dbacked Yes56c35.98$20 inWon+$15.986259.7%37 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No46c35.4$16 inLost-$16.1933356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes53c22.27$12 inWon+$10.397437.8%28 W · 46 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 98. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.