TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 204.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,528
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,084

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,528 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x961f…a3e6backed Over79c6,349$5,000 inWon+$1,349.21560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under17c2,068$349 inLost-$348.552,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Under3c1,900$57 inLost-$5718941.8%79 W · 110 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Under9c1,657$143 inLost-$143.312,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under2c1,016$25 inLost-$24.8645445.2%205 W · 249 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under20c1,000$200 inLost-$20066352.6%349 W · 314 L+30.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Under21c808.4$170 inLost-$169.7611145.9%51 W · 60 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under14c766.53$110 inLost-$109.5253842%226 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under17c741.81$125 inLost-$125.148,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Under22c533.99$119 inLost-$118.730448.4%147 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under22c450.25$100 inLost-$99.781,27747.2%603 W · 674 L-3.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under21c448.79$95 inLost-$94.5325954.4%141 W · 118 L+34.1wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+68.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9c9b…7349backed Over78c384.62$300 inWon+$84.6221574.4%160 W · 55 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under14c333$47 inLost-$46.621,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under16c310.15$49 inLost-$49.151,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d77…cf31backed Under4c259.93$11 inLost-$10.684719.1%9 W · 38 L+4.8wins+0.10per pick9cpaid+66.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e3e…a78abacked Under23c206.52$47 inLost-$47.514237.3%53 W · 89 L-11.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under7c160.59$12 inLost-$11.931,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1413…4bddbacked Over79c130.38$103 inWon+$27.3811259.8%67 W · 45 L-10.1wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-13.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Over77c100$77 inWon+$236150.8%31 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under15c87.99$13 inLost-$13.230842.9%132 W · 176 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa64…898cbacked Under23c86.96$20 inLost-$201225%3 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-37.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8890…cefbbacked Over78c66.46$52 inWon+$14.814446.5%67 W · 77 L-0.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb94…a015backed Under22c50$11 inLost-$114360.5%26 W · 17 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+41.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x29d8…e1b3backed Under22c49.44$11 inLost-$10.8810548.6%51 W · 54 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x228e…08efbacked Over80c37.69$30 inWon+$7.691758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfccc…6479backed Over78c25.64$20 inWon+$5.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bca…2c1dbacked Over78c25.64$20 inWon+$5.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick73cpaid-57.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf657…0677backed Over78c25.64$20 inWon+$5.64450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c33…9ac6backed Over78c25.44$20 inWon+$5.611352.2%59 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda92…df0fbacked Over79c25.32$20 inWon+$5.323100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+82.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8998…e141backed Over78c22.44$17 inWon+$4.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…21efbacked Over77c20.78$16 inWon+$4.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed Over77c20$15 inWon+$4.62369.6%16 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Over75c20$15 inWon+$5.0293148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d3f…50b1backed Over77c20$15 inWon+$4.61070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bca…f109backed Over78c19.99$16 inWon+$4.46056.7%34 W · 26 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick66cpaid-14%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 98. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.