TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Spain (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spainof Spain, Saudi Arabia
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$648,031
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$729,037

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $648,031 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 551 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Saudi Arabia23c99,536$22,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,512.014,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Spain79c44,040$34,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,356.242,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Saudi Arabia25c33,045$8,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,213.843,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73b7…e4e7backed Spain78c30,639$23,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,877.08922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-69.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Spain74c21,157$15,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,514.871,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf031…c80cbacked Saudi Arabia24c18,259$4,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,382.1533538.2%128 W · 207 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Saudi Arabia17c16,503$2,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,823.971,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca0…9b86backed Spain75c14,650$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,650.269929.3%29 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75f0…2b66backed Saudi Arabia2c14,641$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.8229030.7%89 W · 201 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf298…ada5backed Spain72c13,889$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,888.896943.5%30 W · 39 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-22.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Saudi Arabia16c12,914$2,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,081.623,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd881…af24backed Spain73c11,163$8,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,028.1522450.4%113 W · 111 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Spain75c10,543$7,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,656.552,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Saudi Arabia23c8,344$1,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,944.51,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Saudi Arabia25c7,646$1,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,918.612,80555.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L+70.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Saudi Arabia24c7,291$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.841,04443.7%456 W · 588 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0520…e4e0backed Spain72c6,918$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,917.5825336.8%93 W · 160 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x020c…0180backed Spain77c6,793$5,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,562.31241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Saudi Arabia24c6,293$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,523.271,56043.8%684 W · 876 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Saudi Arabia28c5,998$1,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,653.142,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1543…baafbacked Spain76c5,000$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2002020%4 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked Spain75c5,000$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2508158%47 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Saudi Arabia29c5,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,45018837.2%70 W · 118 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Spain77c4,130$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.938734.4%133 W · 254 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Spain70c4,056$2,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.571,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7595…50ffbacked Spain76c4,000$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9604339.5%17 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-26.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Saudi Arabia25c3,877$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.758029.5%171 W · 409 L-19.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Saudi Arabia24c3,799$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.741,87348.4%906 W · 967 L+14.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x578e…c3c0backed Spain76c3,684$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.438951.7%46 W · 43 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa5d…7e90backed Spain76c3,528$2,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.81163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid0%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x238c…57b1backed Spain76c3,485$2,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.415356.6%30 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed Saudi Arabia26c3,450$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.5452744.4%234 W · 293 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Saudi Arabia24c3,339$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.82,63432.9%867 W · 1,767 L+43.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e24…3474backed Spain75c3,314$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.414444.4%64 W · 80 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Spain77c3,292$2,535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.1613742.3%58 W · 79 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x046b…340dbacked Spain76c3,255$2,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.25863.8%37 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Saudi Arabia28c3,065$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.3250243.4%218 W · 284 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked Saudi Arabia23c3,058$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.3446546.7%217 W · 248 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3bf…762dbacked Spain75c3,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7503056.7%17 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56ff…81a0backed Spain75c2,777$2,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.257364.4%47 W · 26 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd849…6ac7backed Spain75c2,674$2,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.62176.2%16 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf055…02b5backed Spain76c2,632$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.5826644%117 W · 149 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…e7a9backed Saudi Arabia28c2,400$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67244144%194 W · 247 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Saudi Arabia26c2,173$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.022,38053.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L+76.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e58…5749backed Spain71c2,018$1,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.644261.9%26 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Spain77c2,000$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46036247.2%171 W · 191 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb73…53b0backed Saudi Arabia25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50015930.8%49 W · 110 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Spain77c2,000$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46035446%163 W · 191 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Saudi Arabia26c2,000$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.232,41153%1,278 W · 1,133 L+75.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacea…8b97backed Spain76c2,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48015147%71 W · 80 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12a2…0e71backed Spain76c1,974$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.6819158.1%111 W · 80 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e8…7953backed Saudi Arabia26c1,923$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030142.5%128 W · 173 L-1.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Saudi Arabia27c1,900$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.042,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x322f…ba1fbacked Spain77c1,854$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.583253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x249b…81f4backed Saudi Arabia1c1,830$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3191…0665backed Spain75c1,700$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.123135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Spain71c1,621$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.1177152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Spain76c1,607$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.5812047.5%57 W · 63 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91af…9a27backed Spain75c1,578$1,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.244548.9%22 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Saudi Arabia23c1,566$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.654,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac1a…813ebacked Spain73c1,542$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.756648.5%32 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09e3…48acbacked Spain71c1,500$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4353450%17 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed Spain76c1,447$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.3760821.9%133 W · 475 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb143…f649backed Spain76c1,400$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3369242.4%39 W · 53 L+0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf704…bed4backed Spain77c1,352$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.897452.7%39 W · 35 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fd8…7749backed Spain75c1,333$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.3316041.3%66 W · 94 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Saudi Arabia25c1,324$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.758942.6%251 W · 338 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Spain76c1,316$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.7930465.1%198 W · 106 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed Spain76c1,316$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.793565.7%23 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa053…130fbacked Spain76c1,316$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.7931129.6%92 W · 219 L+0.7wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46d4…30fcbacked Saudi Arabia9c1,236$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11222032.3%71 W · 149 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Saudi Arabia25c1,200$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30039050.8%198 W · 192 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba1d…d326backed Spain75c1,182$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.5121946.1%101 W · 118 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Saudi Arabia8c1,127$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3343230.1%130 W · 302 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Spain76c1,118$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.4222551.6%116 W · 109 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Saudi Arabia29c1,064$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.491,70236.7%625 W · 1,077 L-31.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Saudi Arabia24c1,050$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2524540%18 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e7…50d1backed Saudi Arabia24c1,025$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.885228.8%15 W · 37 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e98…1583backed Spain75c1,008$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.068349.4%41 W · 42 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5960…6d42backed Spain75c1,008$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.3618548.1%89 W · 96 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Spain76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24021850%109 W · 109 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Spain76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24015150.3%76 W · 75 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1963…dd0cbacked Saudi Arabia7c999.11$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9953920.6%111 W · 428 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x361b…74febacked Saudi Arabia26c943.56$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.3251032.5%166 W · 344 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Spain74c918.75$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.871,06749.1%524 W · 543 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Saudi Arabia25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20035251.7%182 W · 170 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Saudi Arabia25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040848.8%199 W · 209 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed Saudi Arabia25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20037051.4%190 W · 180 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Saudi Arabia23c777$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.7111444.7%51 W · 63 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6980…5478backed Spain74c770$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.24772.3%34 W · 13 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+15.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf706…f685backed Spain78c758.3$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.314161%25 W · 16 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e63…1cedbacked Saudi Arabia24c750$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1806920.3%14 W · 55 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed Saudi Arabia25c741.17$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.2918850%94 W · 94 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4bc…b19dbacked Spain77c728.99$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.673053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xade3…bba5backed Spain72c696.22$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.2210147.5%48 W · 53 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x318d…e94cbacked Spain73c684.75$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.7517462.1%108 W · 66 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5108…29cbbacked Spain75c670.27$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.2737955.7%211 W · 168 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf5b…5d3abacked Spain75c666.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6714568.3%99 W · 46 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick66cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Spain75c666.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6713445.5%61 W · 73 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d82…d90abacked Spain76c657.89$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.892568%17 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.