TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Spain (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Saudi Arabiaof Spain, Saudi Arabia
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$617,853
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$622,382

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $617,853 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 397 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd65…ee96backed Spain22c103,609$22,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,50019644.9%88 W · 108 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3ac…b964backed Saudi Arabia78c82,774$64,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,210.375749.1%28 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Saudi Arabia51c69,980$35,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,353.454,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e69…858dbacked Spain56c30,319$16,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,917.013246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95f7…5541backed Saudi Arabia35c30,030$10,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,657.5910544.8%47 W · 58 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76aa…eff9backed Saudi Arabia23c12,857$2,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,891.3125753.3%137 W · 120 L+23.5wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+17.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Saudi Arabia43c10,241$4,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,844.714,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Spain50c9,906$4,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,952.8118837.2%70 W · 118 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc23d…82c8backed Saudi Arabia48c8,755$4,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,561.0332656.1%183 W · 143 L+29.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+29.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x75f0…2b66backed Saudi Arabia42c8,142$3,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,750.329030.7%89 W · 201 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Spain16c7,544$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.7513059.2%77 W · 53 L+31.0wins+0.24per pick35cpaid+118.1%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Saudi Arabia68c7,475$5,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,361.621,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Spain63c7,017$4,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,427.791,43840.1%576 W · 862 L-40.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Spain75c6,634$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0004774.5%35 W · 12 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xabb2…0bc2backed Spain2c6,446$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012949.6%64 W · 65 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Saudi Arabia49c6,211$3,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,167.5874752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Spain67c6,137$4,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,120.9685550.6%433 W · 422 L+54.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4edd…ddf1backed Spain25c5,176$1,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,290.6627034.4%93 W · 177 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0852…655cbacked Saudi Arabia44c5,176$2,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,890.853629.9%160 W · 376 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Saudi Arabia79c5,013$3,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,051.4177845%350 W · 428 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Spain17c5,000$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85020724.6%51 W · 156 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Saudi Arabia73c4,880$3,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.32,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Spain60c4,865$2,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,928.951,35438.9%527 W · 827 L-55.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Saudi Arabia48c4,799$2,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,477.012,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb399…9435backed Saudi Arabia62c4,461$2,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,688.7228042.1%118 W · 162 L-16.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Spain27c4,444$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.8832029.4%94 W · 226 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfde6…7ed6backed Spain25c4,401$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.3942710.3%44 W · 383 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe214…c5cebacked Spain17c4,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68022437.1%83 W · 141 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Spain66c3,943$2,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,599.431,56339.8%622 W · 941 L-51.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe65e…b719backed Saudi Arabia39c3,786$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,305.7117040%68 W · 102 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8a…cb94backed Saudi Arabia44c3,514$1,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,952.9518056.1%101 W · 79 L+14.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb47…3502backed Saudi Arabia34c3,259$1,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,145.144524.9%111 W · 334 L-1.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Spain63c3,257$2,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,057.321,38040.2%555 W · 825 L-51.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf021…e900backed Saudi Arabia53c3,102$1,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,459.6636437.1%135 W · 229 L+16.5wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x744f…f173backed Spain50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5005343.4%23 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37ae…1002backed Spain51c2,941$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50024917.7%44 W · 205 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Spain55c2,844$1,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,573.8639039%152 W · 238 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf45…c794backed Spain59c2,531$1,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,495.1512846.1%59 W · 69 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Saudi Arabia40c2,487$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,495.9335446%163 W · 191 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Spain75c2,438$1,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,828.55080%40 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+12.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6cfe…c83cbacked Saudi Arabia56c2,336$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.8936234%123 W · 239 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0547…9926backed Spain24c2,329$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55021443%92 W · 122 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Spain61c2,320$1,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,418.131,62732.1%523 W · 1,104 L+4.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc66a…ed6abacked Spain59c2,256$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,329.3241968.3%286 W · 133 L+65.4wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+43.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Spain14c2,134$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.792,38053.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L+76.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Spain15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30038526.8%103 W · 282 L-9.1wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4931…6f58backed Spain50c1,999$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.535545.5%25 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e39…77f3backed Saudi Arabia46c1,944$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.588431%26 W · 58 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f7…1b34backed Spain53c1,856$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.6922436.6%82 W · 142 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa57e…9df6backed Spain64c1,783$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,147.877368.5%50 W · 23 L+12.2wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+45.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xf387…61c0backed Spain43c1,703$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.9734964.5%225 W · 124 L+73.5wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+123.1%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0x2697…0b15backed Saudi Arabia51c1,612$822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.76475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+154.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68c1…caf8backed Spain19c1,607$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.424526.7%12 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f70…0ca9backed Spain64c1,571$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006355.6%35 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1129…6f00backed Spain66c1,517$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002665.4%17 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Spain17c1,509$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.658029.5%171 W · 409 L-19.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Spain17c1,500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.721,55952.4%817 W · 742 L+97.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c47…fc6dbacked Saudi Arabia75c1,472$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.612954.3%70 W · 59 L+14.2wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+89.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7c2d…60f3backed Spain56c1,448$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.21010%1 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-78.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4520…9182backed Spain75c1,331$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00015146.4%70 W · 81 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f71…b2e4backed Spain56c1,310$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.4512254.1%66 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+33.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Saudi Arabia79c1,308$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.5513548.9%66 W · 69 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc7a…3183backed Spain19c1,269$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.981010%1 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Spain17c1,259$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21412429%36 W · 88 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf763…a0aabacked Saudi Arabia55c1,218$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.6118765.2%122 W · 65 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d7b…e2cebacked Saudi Arabia49c1,159$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.338440.5%34 W · 50 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x96ea…639abacked Saudi Arabia44c1,138$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.947635.5%27 W · 49 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+18.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x54a2…5dfebacked Saudi Arabia48c1,100$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.729151.6%47 W · 44 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc096…9e8dbacked Spain41c1,093$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.8411335.4%40 W · 73 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4156…997ebacked Saudi Arabia34c1,072$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.3721143.1%91 W · 120 L+0.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e1…b30fbacked Saudi Arabia50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5001618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-61.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Saudi Arabia79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21016647.6%79 W · 87 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed Spain50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012343.1%53 W · 70 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Saudi Arabia42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5803234.4%11 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Saudi Arabia80c999.99$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001,07545.2%486 W · 589 L+41.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Spain27c999.4$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.8415150.3%76 W · 75 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5960…6d42backed Spain57c976$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.7518548.1%89 W · 96 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba1d…d326backed Saudi Arabia52c963.59$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.0821946.1%101 W · 118 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Spain56c958.49$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.7520234.2%69 W · 133 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a16…b7e3backed Spain62c937.92$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.181553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad9d…f2cdbacked Spain13c897.05$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.6215225.7%39 W · 113 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73bb…f68ebacked Spain57c877.24$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x848c…2bf0backed Spain18c824.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15022122.2%49 W · 172 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb17e…22bebacked Saudi Arabia33c811.72$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.4218543.8%81 W · 104 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Spain48c799.98$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.9911044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa6e…6d8ebacked Spain51c786.28$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4006657.6%38 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bbb…48f2backed Saudi Arabia56c753.98$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.758758.6%51 W · 36 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Saudi Arabia32c745$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.992,45334.7%850 W · 1,603 L+84.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd169…8ff6backed Spain48c724.97$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.7417241.3%71 W · 101 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0693…9679backed Spain58c703.28$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.6922633.6%76 W · 150 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe10f…e4aebacked Spain79c699.99$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55314454.2%78 W · 66 L+9.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Spain59c674$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.3751250.4%258 W · 254 L+31.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Spain75c659.47$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.622551.6%116 W · 109 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Saudi Arabia80c633.93$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.251,06749.1%524 W · 543 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07ea…a6babacked Spain52c633.64$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33035244%155 W · 197 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed Spain18c623.72$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11560821.9%133 W · 475 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Saudi Arabia51c622.25$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.97640.8%31 W · 45 L-8.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-20.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6b04…f792backed Spain51c615.69$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3146459.4%38 W · 26 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Spain18c600$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10814440.3%58 W · 86 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Spain17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014528.3%41 W · 104 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.