Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Norway (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d18aae6b585c739e2e4dc7b50c9e067b64152effaf0e84af5876e911e189d62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Franceof Norway, France
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $205,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $206,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $205,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Norway | 5c | 23,451$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.93 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Norway | 6c | 20,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 296 | 46.3%137 W · 159 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee39…c0fbbacked Norway | 4c | 14,096$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.86 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…d9edbacked Norway | 1c | 10,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Norway | 4c | 8,224$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.6 | 250 | 19.6%49 W · 201 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Norway | 6c | 4,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.99 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Norway | 5c | 3,756$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.79 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…1269backed Norway | 4c | 3,525$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.14 | 383 | 33.9%130 W · 253 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Norway | 7c | 3,192$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.44 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe987…f0e1backed Norway | 3c | 3,033$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 380 | 26.6%101 W · 279 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ce…5eb3backed Norway | 7c | 2,734$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.41 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0e…2a0ebacked Norway | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Norway | 5c | 2,428$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Norway | 5c | 2,362$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.12 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fc…0eacbacked Norway | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf36e…f91cbacked Norway | 8c | 1,543$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.41 | 154 | 18.8%29 W · 125 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked Norway | 4c | 1,351$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6d…27bbbacked Norway | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bd…6dddbacked Norway | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc61f…35a6backed Norway | 6c | 835$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 318 | 42.5%135 W · 183 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x625e…96f5backed Norway | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e89…3e0abacked Norway | 5c | 621.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 267 | 16.1%43 W · 224 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f5…0688backed Norway | 6c | 565$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 156 | 48.1%75 W · 81 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Norway | 8c | 562.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 366 | 31.1%114 W · 252 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Norway | 4c | 519.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Norway | 3c | 511.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Norway | 2c | 493.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1,627 | 32.1%523 W · 1,104 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Norway | 7c | 492.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7a…751abacked Norway | 4c | 473.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 732 | 34.6%253 W · 479 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca1…ee3fbacked Norway | 4c | 400.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 138 | 33.3%46 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Norway | 6c | 395.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 1,421 | 47.8%679 W · 742 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…f81abacked Norway | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…35bfbacked Norway | 7c | 350$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 228 | 25.4%58 W · 170 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed Norway | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 317 | 28.1%89 W · 228 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Norway | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…697dbacked Norway | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 223 | 43.9%98 W · 125 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…603cbacked Norway | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a2…0489backed Norway | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +170.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a52…c0e8backed Norway | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb9…14a8backed Norway | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2308…6c79backed Norway | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a4…7155backed Norway | 9c | 166.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…9c4ebacked Norway | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 100 | 19%19 W · 81 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Norway (-1.5)this page
- Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Norway vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Norway vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Norway vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Norway vs. France: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Norway vs. France: France 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Norway vs. France: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Norway vs. France: France O/U 0.5Over won
- Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5Over won
- Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5Over won
- Norway vs. France: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Norway vs. France: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Norway vs. France: Norway 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Norway vs. France: Norway 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5Over won
- Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5Under won
- Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 2.5Under won
- Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5Over won
- Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5Over won
- Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5Over won
- Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5Over won
- Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5Over won
- Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5Under won
- Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5Under won
- Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5Under won
- Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: France (-1.5)France won
- Spread: France (-2.5)France won
- Spread: France (-3.5)Norway won
- Spread: France (-4.5)Norway won
- Spread: France (-5.5)Norway won
- Spread: Norway (-2.5)France won
- Spread: Norway (-3.5)France won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.