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Fifa International · resolved market

Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$157,985
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$154,784

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,985 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x160b…4296backed Under3c17,427$591 inLost-$590.841,04443.7%456 W · 588 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34a1…7622backed Under3c15,231$512 inLost-$511.6230626.5%81 W · 225 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cd6…18e4backed Under4c13,180$512 inLost-$511.546016.7%10 W · 50 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe734…4f0cbacked Under3c10,000$310 inLost-$3108325.3%21 W · 62 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-28.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c9e…5b1bbacked Under4c7,394$302 inLost-$302.3960%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Under2c5,982$129 inLost-$129.3858926.8%158 W · 431 L-30.5wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb47…3502backed Under4c5,565$200 inLost-$200.3444524.9%111 W · 334 L-1.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Under3c5,050$157 inLost-$156.554,02738.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L-26.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Under4c3,239$114 inLost-$114.351,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Under3c3,229$108 inLost-$1082,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8fb…19dcbacked Under4c2,783$100 inLost-$1001010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-72.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x635d…7047backed Under3c2,485$84 inLost-$84.151756.9%12 W · 163 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+112.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed Under4c2,026$71 inLost-$71.211,13540.2%456 W · 679 L+5.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Under4c2,025$72 inLost-$71.728,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc82e…de2abacked Under4c2,000$70 inLost-$701936.8%7 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick24cpaid-5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda7b…eef9backed Under4c1,388$49 inLost-$48.586426.6%17 W · 47 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3561…f1b7backed Under3c1,213$40 inLost-$39.9995037.5%356 W · 594 L-1.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe270…eab5backed Under4c1,187$45 inLost-$44.6524136.9%89 W · 152 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d5…36bfbacked Under4c1,100$41 inLost-$40.722639.4%89 W · 137 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb2…9aa8backed Under3c1,094$37 inLost-$37.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e89…3e0abacked Under3c893.36$30 inLost-$3026716.1%43 W · 224 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under3c874.11$28 inLost-$28.42,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b12…7a89backed Under4c756.76$28 inLost-$28368.3%3 W · 33 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-2.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Under3c699.98$22 inLost-$21.746525.4%118 W · 347 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bd8…f260backed Under3c582.48$20 inLost-$2037919.5%74 W · 305 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Under4c453.68$18 inLost-$18.151,04529.3%306 W · 739 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Under3c449.17$13 inLost-$13.482,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc773…1dbabacked Under3c435.03$15 inLost-$14.9770%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Under3c429.43$15 inLost-$1529529.8%88 W · 207 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8460…63e3backed Under3c402$13 inLost-$132665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc72…2888backed Under3c400$13 inLost-$12.827227.6%75 W · 197 L-0.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b46…625fbacked Under3c359.99$12 inLost-$11.811315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b89…a4cdbacked Under3c322.5$10 inLost-$10.325635.7%20 W · 36 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5e7…15dabacked Under3c315.29$11 inLost-$115350.9%27 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb1…0073backed Under3c312.5$10 inLost-$102744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c20…41b3backed Under4c308.91$12 inLost-$11.7418118.2%33 W · 148 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacca…3fb0backed Under3c300$10 inLost-$10.4240%0 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8b9…7a6bbacked Under4c300$11 inLost-$11.12412.5%3 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-61.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2b40…a2bcbacked Under4c300$12 inLost-$1211721.4%25 W · 92 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.