TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,951
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,966

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,951 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No43c1,509$643 inWon+$865.3833049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No41c1,472$610 inWon+$862.2479650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No42c905.38$385 inWon+$520.811,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Yes58c862$500 inLost-$499.9623553.6%126 W · 109 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0df…5974backed Yes59c852.68$500 inLost-$5001369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick46cpaid+62.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked No46c639.97$294 inWon+$345.5824949%122 W · 127 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5ba…06b3backed Yes58c496$289 inLost-$2893339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-27.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked Yes54c472.09$255 inLost-$254.932157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9eb4…1bd1backed Yes57c345.86$197 inLost-$197.142532%8 W · 17 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-28.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa0fd…a91ebacked Yes59c298.37$175 inLost-$1759353.8%50 W · 43 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59a8…eb4ebacked Yes58c224.14$130 inLost-$1304850%24 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked No49c200$98 inWon+$10229346.4%136 W · 157 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x13c9…5e53backed No44c199.99$88 inWon+$111.9930544.6%136 W · 169 L-10.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb94…a015backed No43c181.53$77 inWon+$104.264360.5%26 W · 17 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+41.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x29db…19c3backed Yes56c176.79$99 inLost-$991540%6 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6d9…04eebacked Yes57c175.44$100 inLost-$1002245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4afc…ded7backed Yes57c169.75$97 inLost-$96.76850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Yes48c131.88$64 inLost-$63.549244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7b3…fec6backed Yes56c117.63$66 inLost-$65.96650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea39…9d34backed Yes58c100$58 inLost-$581457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+52.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f47…f611backed Yes57c100$57 inLost-$576344.4%28 W · 35 L-8.3wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-26.9%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Yes56c97.63$55 inLost-$54.6716050%80 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0925…dda4backed Yes57c87.72$50 inLost-$501040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad8…5004backed Yes59c70.87$42 inLost-$41.816758.2%39 W · 28 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+19.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x26c2…0cdfbacked No38c70.84$27 inWon+$44.234736.2%17 W · 30 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b46…fd16backed Yes58c68.97$40 inLost-$403253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa26e…4b8fbacked Yes54c57.61$31 inLost-$31.11425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x384c…f003backed Yes57c52.63$30 inLost-$30250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bd2…aafebacked Yes57c52.63$30 inLost-$302147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb6…9e4dbacked Yes57c52.63$30 inLost-$306259.7%37 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe2b…51debacked Yes58c51.77$30 inLost-$3010247.1%48 W · 54 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77cb…9c2abacked No44c40$18 inWon+$22.41346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4078…7d91backed Yes56c35.56$20 inLost-$205540%22 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x485c…c6b3backed Yes58c34.48$20 inLost-$204757.4%27 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No50c34.23$17 inWon+$17.133356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed No44c30$13 inWon+$16.841227.4%113 W · 299 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+94.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6538…efb9backed Yes59c29.34$17 inLost-$17.31875%6 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+81.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x127a…ca3cbacked Yes57c24.56$14 inLost-$145352.8%28 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49d0…bf9dbacked Yes58c24.14$14 inLost-$144139%16 W · 25 L-6.6wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-30.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2eb6…d381backed Yes54c22.22$12 inLost-$12728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-51.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd312…4a63backed Yes56c21.64$12 inLost-$12.124252.4%22 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 98. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.