Spread: United States (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59b48bb16667a03c36e590ea1285555616a978f0f67ba15ed76b4d41e3456a23

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Belgiumof United States, Belgium
Resolved: Jul 6, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $291,389
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $281,122

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $291,389 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x84cf…2f63backed United States	6c	22,373$1,444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,443.82	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked United States	6c	20,980$1,329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,328.79	1,536	49.1%754 W · 782 L	+32.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf81a…719abacked United States	8c	6,024$482 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$481.88	136	23.5%32 W · 104 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-22%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked United States	3c	5,450$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.64	372	23.4%87 W · 285 L	-25.7wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ac9…92d3backed United States	3c	5,436$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.47	226	22.1%50 W · 176 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	+48.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4e1…34a5backed United States	7c	5,313$372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$371.93	66	33.3%22 W · 44 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x772d…45bbbacked United States	1c	4,573$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.22	68	19.1%13 W · 55 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed United States	4c	4,023$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.39	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec0e…ccdcbacked United States	1c	3,617$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed United States	2c	2,991$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.61	390	39%152 W · 238 L	-12.2wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x361b…74febacked United States	8c	2,903$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.26	510	32.5%166 W · 344 L	-9.1wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe581…ba35backed United States	1c	2,560$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.92	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2c9…a7ecbacked United States	1c	2,366$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.35	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe92e…0a8dbacked United States	7c	2,261$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.94	122	6.6%8 W · 114 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67f3…dd91backed United States	1c	1,996$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc251…99d7backed United States	1c	1,987$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8af7…cb86backed United States	1c	1,980$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e28…4a5fbacked United States	1c	1,836$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.36	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x509f…0a8ebacked United States	1c	1,823$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1180…a398backed United States	1c	1,812$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed United States	7c	1,811$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.75	360	31.7%114 W · 246 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcebc…84babacked United States	1c	1,796$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3de8…f13ebacked United States	1c	1,794$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.94	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f10…25efbacked United States	1c	1,788$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7158…aab8backed United States	1c	1,788$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e02…44c0backed United States	1c	1,696$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc67b…03b4backed United States	1c	1,639$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77e1…6b1ebacked United States	1c	1,554$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x053a…7ed9backed United States	1c	1,453$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd722…0564backed United States	7c	1,429$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	194	36.6%71 W · 123 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed United States	7c	1,321$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.47	716	38.4%275 W · 441 L	+8.7wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21a4…4357backed United States	1c	1,284$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.97	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8b5…b245backed United States	1c	1,262$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.97	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b14…2322backed United States	1c	1,223$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4eb…2a2dbacked United States	1c	1,222$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79c9…412ebacked United States	2c	1,221$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f10…1b06backed United States	2c	1,221$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e3…bc51backed United States	2c	1,221$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53de…efaebacked United States	2c	1,220$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.3	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x328b…9469backed United States	1c	1,213$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x930f…5c0abacked United States	1c	1,206$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0db4…c53bbacked United States	2c	1,199$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.99	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f85…7167backed United States	2c	1,197$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4cd…f25abacked United States	2c	1,197$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f7…c4e4backed United States	6c	1,122$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.32	727	22.7%165 W · 562 L	+6.0wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…9b33backed United States	7c	999.99$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	54	35.2%19 W · 35 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa278…3369backed United States	8c	932.88$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.63	1,111	24.3%270 W · 841 L	-32.2wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked United States	7c	921.43$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.5	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc889…4903backed United States	7c	714.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe981…1859backed United States	7c	714.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	109	18.3%20 W · 89 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed United States	8c	625$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	145	28.3%41 W · 104 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked United States	6c	595.19$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.71	465	46.7%217 W · 248 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed United States	3c	567.91$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.37	1,627	32.1%523 W · 1,104 L	+4.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9520…fa6ebacked United States	7c	475.86$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.31	41	24.4%10 W · 31 L	-3.2wins	-0.08per pick	32cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb1e…05f5backed United States	7c	428.57$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-2.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7756…eaa6backed United States	8c	375$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-48%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked United States	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked United States	5c	249.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.47	300	39.3%118 W · 182 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed United States	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	106	14.2%15 W · 91 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed United States	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	189	11.1%21 W · 168 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x49e1…a8bdbacked United States	8c	187.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	125	17.6%22 W · 103 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: United States (-2.5)this page
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)Belgium won
Spread: Belgium (-2.5)Belgium won
Spread: Belgium (-3.5)United States won
Spread: Belgium (-4.5)United States won
Spread: United States (-1.5)Belgium won
Spread: United States (-3.5)Belgium won
United States vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 7.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 8.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceBelgium won
United States vs. Belgium: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: United States 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: United States 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: United States O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: United States O/U 1.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: United States O/U 2.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won
United States vs. Belgium: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: United States (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event