United States vs. Belgium: United States O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf246ec9cda4c5506fa40c703a008491520fed5d597779e69a528910c6931a76a

Rebuilt 15 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jul 6, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $307,259
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $313,768

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $307,259 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdd88…dadbbacked Over	18c	47,000$8,680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,679.99	239	42.3%101 W · 138 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Over	19c	19,498$3,642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,642.13	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91fe…c1c6backed Over	24c	19,363$4,663 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,662.77	177	47.5%84 W · 93 L	+11.7wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over	19c	18,827$3,535 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,534.76	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over	18c	18,576$3,256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,256.36	4,027	38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L	-26.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over	14c	9,028$1,280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,279.9	1,252	39.2%491 W · 761 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Over	19c	6,443$1,224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,224.19	1,044	43.7%456 W · 588 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	15c	5,250$785 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$785.1	2,307	37.6%867 W · 1,440 L	-16.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Over	18c	4,444$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$799.92	320	29.4%94 W · 226 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over	20c	4,097$815 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$814.64	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x332a…c9a2backed Over	22c	3,300$736 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$736	72	37.5%27 W · 45 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under	72c	2,745$1,978 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$766.56	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa645…0be6backed Over	21c	1,715$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	85	30.6%26 W · 59 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	76c	1,666$1,266 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$399.84	2,533	46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L	+12.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under	78c	1,632$1,278 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$354.16	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0852…655cbacked Over	26c	1,566$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.31	536	29.9%160 W · 376 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Under	80c	1,500$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	706	48.2%340 W · 366 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53ad…5bd4backed Over	19c	1,500$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285	471	27.8%131 W · 340 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a9e…0dfcbacked Over	22c	1,364$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	83	41%34 W · 49 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Under	69c	1,200$828 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$372	2,634	32.9%867 W · 1,767 L	+43.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41f7…c4e4backed Over	19c	1,070$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.2	727	22.7%165 W · 562 L	+6.0wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Over	22c	1,027$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.79	98	21.4%21 W · 77 L	-8.6wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-26%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked Under	80c	1,000$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	465	46.7%217 W · 248 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33d…a537backed Over	21c	952.38$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	85	30.6%26 W · 59 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over	22c	928.75$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.94	1,627	32.1%523 W · 1,104 L	+4.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc220…5012backed Over	14c	646.07$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.45	296	36.1%107 W · 189 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over	14c	585.9$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.78	1,669	41.6%694 W · 975 L	+15.9wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…9b5ebacked Over	11c	538.36$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.22	55	21.8%12 W · 43 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-12%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x014c…38ccbacked Over	19c	526.32$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	286	46.2%132 W · 154 L	+7.7wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5669…0f13backed Over	12c	520$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.4	81	40.7%33 W · 48 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ab…178dbacked Over	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	198	23.7%47 W · 151 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over	12c	475.69$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.86	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d1…be5bbacked Under	80c	475$380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over	19c	407.2$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.04	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75ea…1616backed Over	18c	365.94$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.87	34	26.5%9 W · 25 L	-4.7wins	-0.14per pick	40cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd34c…10b4backed Over	23c	347.83$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	724	24.7%179 W · 545 L	-9.4wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over	15c	282.52$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.67	1,941	35.5%690 W · 1,251 L	-25.4wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over	17c	262.93$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.38	2,271	39.5%896 W · 1,375 L	+10.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Over	18c	247.96$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.63	96	35.4%34 W · 62 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc423…03b9backed Over	4c	236.6$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	409	12%49 W · 360 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa278…3369backed Over	19c	211.85$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.98	1,111	24.3%270 W · 841 L	-32.2wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x225e…ac2dbacked Under	78c	189.46$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.15	39	69.2%27 W · 12 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	65cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13d0…4a70backed Over	14c	185.5$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.11	324	33.6%109 W · 215 L	-17.2wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf663…5654backed Over	27c	185.19$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	80	37.5%30 W · 50 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Over	13c	169.16$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.47	55	20%11 W · 44 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Over	12c	156$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.72	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1597…6edebacked Over	13c	153.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	470	29.1%137 W · 333 L	-14.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f26…c697backed Over	21c	138.99$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.19	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Over	18c	138.89$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	73c	134.76$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.55	2,793	46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L	-10.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked Over	24c	127.39$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.57	698	26.1%182 W · 516 L	-21.7wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Over	20c	126.52$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.3	481	54.9%264 W · 217 L	+4.1wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6e0…ff0fbacked Over	17c	125.92$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.41	289	45.3%131 W · 158 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae34…3a8abacked Under	80c	125$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	102	70.6%72 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	70cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc16…1094backed Under	80c	125$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	66cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a8e…664abacked Over	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	58	27.6%16 W · 42 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71b9…58a7backed Under	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	44	52.3%23 W · 21 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8527…009bbacked Over	27c	92.59$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	73	17.8%13 W · 60 L	-4.5wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1556…b722backed Over	23c	86.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	296	39.5%117 W · 179 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f50…fbf2backed Over	33c	81.34$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.02	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfba…583cbacked Under	80c	73.2$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.64	927	32.1%298 W · 629 L	+5.8wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed Under	79c	64.12$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.47	617	52%321 W · 296 L	-13.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f5…f087backed Over	21c	62.72$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	162	50%81 W · 81 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd2c…31f4backed Under	80c	62.5$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.5	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf323…b0d7backed Under	80c	62.5$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.5	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	69cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d7a…751abacked Under	80c	60.06$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.01	732	34.6%253 W · 479 L	-22.2wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2d7…c8b1backed Over	28c	51.1$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.31	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.12per pick	21cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe16…60bebacked Under	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	150	63.3%95 W · 55 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	64cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over	21c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	1,306	44.7%584 W · 722 L	-9.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae2d…2bc4backed Under	79c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	97	52.6%51 W · 46 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe24e…9410backed Under	75c	40.17$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.17	60	61.7%37 W · 23 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Under	70c	30$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	607	52.4%318 W · 289 L	+21.6wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc6d…31cebacked Under	73c	27.39$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.4	669	32.1%215 W · 454 L	+16.8wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc72…2888backed Under	70c	19.95$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.91	272	27.6%75 W · 197 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd99a…1f3ebacked Under	80c	18.75$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.75	51	51%26 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under	75c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.79	1,492	41%612 W · 880 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

United States vs. Belgium: United States O/U 2.5this page
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)Belgium won
Spread: Belgium (-2.5)Belgium won
Spread: Belgium (-3.5)United States won
Spread: Belgium (-4.5)United States won
Spread: United States (-1.5)Belgium won
Spread: United States (-2.5)Belgium won
Spread: United States (-3.5)Belgium won
United States vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 7.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 8.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceBelgium won
United States vs. Belgium: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: United States 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: United States 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: United States O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: United States O/U 1.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won
United States vs. Belgium: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

United States vs. Belgium: United States O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event