United States vs. Belgium: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bf6145f04c93713862293be66c1da8737bcec2bc629dab4b47058afd8baac14

Rebuilt 38 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 6, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $94,380
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $93,635

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,380 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc65f…fe1fbacked Yes	17c	22,340$3,807 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,807.49	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb225…3d54backed Yes	17c	10,475$1,781 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,780.74	95	25.3%24 W · 71 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	11c	7,955$897 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$896.58	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes	3c	3,173$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.97	127	9.4%12 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9520…fa6ebacked Yes	15c	2,735$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410	41	24.4%10 W · 31 L	-3.2wins	-0.08per pick	32cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3fe…688abacked Yes	18c	2,600$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$475.09	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-2.3wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes	17c	2,234$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.61	304	31.3%95 W · 209 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0520…e4e0backed Yes	11c	2,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	253	36.8%93 W · 160 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e7c…6392backed Yes	18c	1,667$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf590…98eabacked Yes	18c	1,389$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-3.3wins	-0.16per pick	26cpaid	-83.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd2f4…cddbbacked Yes	17c	1,193$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199	42	38.1%16 W · 26 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3123…23dfbacked Yes	15c	1,088$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.64	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d0…3df9backed Yes	18c	1,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef84…6872backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	137	5.1%7 W · 130 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	2cpaid	+94.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd21…ae2fbacked Yes	11c	948.91$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.3wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb68a…ce1fbacked Yes	12c	691.24$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.95	64	56.3%36 W · 28 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Yes	18c	555.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	360	38.1%137 W · 223 L	-15.1wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-14%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a58…b808backed Yes	16c	499.93$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.99	228	35.5%81 W · 147 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19fe…3f6fbacked Yes	18c	455.88$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	82	31.7%26 W · 56 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3696…69cebacked Yes	17c	399.99$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	161	49.7%80 W · 81 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98bd…8a55backed Yes	18c	333.33$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	156	50%78 W · 78 L	+9.5wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+17%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a01…024abacked Yes	15c	325.13$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfaf…9206backed Yes	16c	300$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	84	53.6%45 W · 39 L	+9.7wins	+0.12per pick	42cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x05ae…5a4bbacked Yes	14c	298.09$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.57	360	24.4%88 W · 272 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	+7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77fa…1a63backed Yes	8c	292.21$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.69	58	20.7%12 W · 46 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe7c…7334backed Yes	16c	253.69$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	48	14.6%7 W · 41 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde4b…b1b9backed Yes	16c	250$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	100	38%38 W · 62 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3aab…c911backed Yes	22c	228.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-6.3wins	-0.14per pick	44cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4fa8…d720backed Yes	18c	222.22$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-72%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ea4…9d9abacked Yes	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	84	31%26 W · 58 L	-7.0wins	-0.08per pick	39cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5960…d692backed Yes	18c	199.98$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+10%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes	10c	185.03$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	52	32.7%17 W · 35 L	+6.4wins	+0.12per pick	20cpaid	+38.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2e6b…3e58backed Yes	17c	170.59$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	109	11%12 W · 97 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0196…d9f9backed Yes	18c	166.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	77	36.4%28 W · 49 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c28…abe9backed Yes	18c	155.56$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+2.4wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c04…1844backed Yes	17c	147.06$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	144	25.7%37 W · 107 L	-7.1wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa313…eb44backed Yes	18c	144$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.92	303	44.2%134 W · 169 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa22d…3f00backed Yes	14c	142.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	61	36.1%22 W · 39 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cae…fdc1backed Yes	18c	138.89$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	58	44.8%26 W · 32 L	+4.9wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ec…c5d6backed Yes	18c	138.89$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	75	14.7%11 W · 64 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed Yes	17c	136.5$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.21	337	29.1%98 W · 239 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d86…9241backed Yes	16c	126$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	120	20.8%25 W · 95 L	-6.0wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-31%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes	16c	121.18$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.38	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd43…7b3fbacked Yes	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	150	46.7%70 W · 80 L	+10.4wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x353d…dc92backed Yes	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc366…7b4fbacked Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6bd8…f260backed Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	379	19.5%74 W · 305 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x548a…0fc9backed Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	54	37%20 W · 34 L	+5.4wins	+0.10per pick	27cpaid	+55.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe855…1139backed Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	+3.7wins	+0.12per pick	14cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	295	29.8%88 W · 207 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf19b…bf9fbacked Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	41cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes	17c	105.88$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	514	29.4%151 W · 363 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbbcf…20aebacked Yes	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	256	39.1%100 W · 156 L	+8.8wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x480e…ffa4backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-2.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3743…205fbacked Yes	16c	99.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf8d…0de5backed Yes	18c	89$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.02	60	46.7%28 W · 32 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7df…47eebacked Yes	17c	88.24$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.14per pick	37cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b21…b8debacked Yes	17c	88.24$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	89	12.4%11 W · 78 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes	15c	76.78$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.52	778	45%350 W · 428 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabe5…777dbacked Yes	17c	76$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.92	67	35.8%24 W · 43 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes	17c	74$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.58	456	27.9%127 W · 329 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	+6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd588…bbcbbacked Yes	17c	73.88$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.56	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	45cpaid	-59.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd13…94e5backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.31per pick	56cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e19…270abacked Yes	17c	60$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	251	38.6%97 W · 154 L	-16.6wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e43…78d8backed Yes	17c	57.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	240	42.5%102 W · 138 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb449…4188backed No	80c	40$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-2.6wins	-0.15per pick	63cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed No	74c	27.08$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.94	96	64.6%62 W · 34 L	+6.6wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No	77c	14.28$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.28	90	64.4%58 W · 32 L	+11.7wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc4c5…2c1fbacked No	79c	13.99$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.94	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1a7…ace4backed No	79c	13.27$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.79	514	58.8%302 W · 212 L	+25.0wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

United States vs. Belgium: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?this page
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)Belgium won
Spread: Belgium (-2.5)Belgium won
Spread: Belgium (-3.5)United States won
Spread: Belgium (-4.5)United States won
Spread: United States (-1.5)Belgium won
Spread: United States (-2.5)Belgium won
Spread: United States (-3.5)Belgium won
United States vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 7.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 8.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceBelgium won
United States vs. Belgium: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: United States 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: United States 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: United States O/U 0.5Over won
United States vs. Belgium: United States O/U 1.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: United States O/U 2.5Under won
United States vs. Belgium: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

United States vs. Belgium: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event