Fifa International · resolved market
United States vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4a435640299a19b25769bc3cb1f71cbbdb00f30276cc817afe077edfee62874
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $193,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $216,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 5c | 14,999$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.97 | 1,536 | 49.1%754 W · 782 L | +32.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…18e4backed Under | 7c | 14,280$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.6 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Under | 6c | 11,506$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.34 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 7c | 5,579$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.53 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 5c | 5,286$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.81 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aea…10c9backed Under | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa7…736ebacked Under | 6c | 4,984$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 227 | 46.3%105 W · 122 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 6c | 4,844$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.94 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 5c | 4,533$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 357 | 19.6%70 W · 287 L | -13.8wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Under | 6c | 4,200$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6320…7e94backed Under | 5c | 3,949$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.46 | 388 | 17.5%68 W · 320 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…c6edbacked Under | 6c | 3,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7a…9e24backed Under | 6c | 2,989$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.35 | 132 | 34.1%45 W · 87 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Under | 6c | 2,883$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 302 | 20.2%61 W · 241 L | -15.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 6c | 2,100$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 306 | 26.5%81 W · 225 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe538…c28bbacked Under | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8a…2562backed Under | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…05c0backed Under | 7c | 1,665$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 219 | 37.9%83 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked Under | 5c | 1,641$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.07 | 122 | 6.6%8 W · 114 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…7047backed Under | 5c | 1,584$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 175 | 6.9%12 W · 163 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +112.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Under | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 341 | 25.8%88 W · 253 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Under | 7c | 1,490$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.85 | 301 | 37.2%112 W · 189 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…f1b7backed Under | 6c | 1,446$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.82 | 950 | 37.5%356 W · 594 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba2…1650backed Under | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 5c | 1,409$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 977 | 42%410 W · 567 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 6c | 1,335$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655a…8fadbacked Under | 6c | 1,105$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.31 | 107 | 15%16 W · 91 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9a…1757backed Under | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8630…158bbacked Under | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 3c | 885.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 372 | 23.4%87 W · 285 L | -25.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 5c | 851.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb36…a357backed Under | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 72 | 11.1%8 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…e4aebacked Under | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 18.5%15 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ec…c5d6backed Under | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 14.7%11 W · 64 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 5c | 533.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 328 | 37.2%122 W · 206 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1292…e678backed Under | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3696…69cebacked Under | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed Under | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba9…c25fbacked Under | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8e…b1d0backed Under | 3c | 439.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed Under | 6c | 437.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c5…f6a1backed Under | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 157 | 54.1%85 W · 72 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 5c | 339.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,421 | 47.8%679 W · 742 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2264…7341backed Under | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f37…bcd3backed Under | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x685c…b626backed Under | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 78 | 15.4%12 W · 66 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473c…22fdbacked Under | 6c | 299.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 277 | 65.3%181 W · 96 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…bdafbacked Under | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 10.7%8 W · 67 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Under | 6c | 249.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2f…06bebacked Under | 6c | 233.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdb…8417backed Under | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.29per pick | 37cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab13…ee77backed Under | 6c | 179.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 42 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- United States vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5this page
- Spread: Belgium (-1.5)Belgium won
- Spread: Belgium (-2.5)Belgium won
- Spread: Belgium (-3.5)United States won
- Spread: Belgium (-4.5)United States won
- Spread: United States (-1.5)Belgium won
- Spread: United States (-2.5)Belgium won
- Spread: United States (-3.5)Belgium won
- United States vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- United States vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- United States vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- United States vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- United States vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- United States vs. Belgium: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- United States vs. Belgium: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- United States vs. Belgium: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- United States vs. Belgium: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 0.5Over won
- United States vs. Belgium: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 1.5Over won
- United States vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 0.5Over won
- United States vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5Over won
- United States vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 2.5Over won
- United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in First HalfYes won
- United States vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- United States vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5Over won
- United States vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5Over won
- United States vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5Over won
- United States vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5Over won
- United States vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5Under won
- United States vs. Belgium: O/U 6.5Under won
- United States vs. Belgium: O/U 7.5Under won
- United States vs. Belgium: O/U 8.5Under won
- United States vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceBelgium won
- United States vs. Belgium: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- United States vs. Belgium: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- United States vs. Belgium: United States 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- United States vs. Belgium: United States 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- United States vs. Belgium: United States O/U 0.5Over won
- United States vs. Belgium: United States O/U 1.5Under won
- United States vs. Belgium: United States O/U 2.5Under won
- United States vs. Belgium: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?No won
- United States vs. Belgium: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.