TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Spread: Norway (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Norwayof Norway, Iraq
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,768,364
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,190,493

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,768,364 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,452 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Iraq43c607,891$261,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261,791.494,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d7b…e2cebacked Iraq41c361,736$147,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147,434.428440.5%34 W · 50 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9243…658ebacked Norway60c273,941$162,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110,942.8915249.3%75 W · 77 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Iraq40c140,329$55,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,476.411,14439.2%448 W · 696 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Norway59c126,608$75,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51,607.8319644.9%88 W · 108 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Norway59c84,746$50,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,745.7618740.6%76 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9a6…627bbacked Norway59c84,746$50,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,745.7611645.7%53 W · 63 L+0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Norway56c72,224$40,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,992.722,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Norway58c62,085$36,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,066.592552%13 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+140%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2c1…4cf3backed Norway59c60,355$35,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,660.182740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Iraq41c53,645$21,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,976.073,99224.9%994 W · 2,998 L-47.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x036e…c670backed Iraq41c50,272$20,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,611.46616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.31per pick47cpaid-59.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Iraq41c50,000$20,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,499.973237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Norway59c45,000$26,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,449.855263.5%33 W · 19 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x02e2…cd40backed Norway45c41,552$18,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,035.42475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+73.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Norway59c40,867$24,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,729.622,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed Norway59c40,500$23,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,604.9817949.2%88 W · 91 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2567…fc9dbacked Norway59c28,390$16,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,639.8312349.6%61 W · 62 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a2…14b8backed Norway59c26,000$15,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,66010734.6%37 W · 70 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ed…9f79backed Norway59c25,996$15,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,658.416939.1%27 W · 42 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3da4…367ebacked Norway43c25,801$11,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,781.336943.5%30 W · 39 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcfb…efc0backed Norway59c25,424$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,423.737129.6%21 W · 50 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3af1…d739backed Iraq40c25,304$10,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,121.5911647.4%55 W · 61 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6157…9fb4backed Norway59c25,000$14,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,25012254.1%66 W · 56 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Norway60c24,658$14,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,968.341,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Norway59c24,000$14,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,839.979451.1%48 W · 46 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe214…c5cebacked Norway61c22,833$13,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,85022437.1%83 W · 141 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Iraq53c22,769$11,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,961.7164446.4%299 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa698…db5ebacked Norway56c20,662$11,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,093.497962%49 W · 30 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+13.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe1e1…d250backed Iraq40c19,999$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,999.7730%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4e1…34a5backed Iraq41c18,062$7,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,405.596633.3%22 W · 44 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc30b…fec0backed Norway59c16,949$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,949.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb41a…5b07backed Norway59c16,442$9,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,741.22240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d60…006abacked Iraq42c15,606$6,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,554.721020%2 W · 8 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-67.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Iraq41c15,000$6,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,15074447.8%356 W · 388 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Iraq41c14,257$5,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,790.7148152.4%252 W · 229 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Norway59c14,000$8,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,69016957.4%97 W · 72 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc36e…12d8backed Iraq41c14,000$5,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7402934.5%10 W · 19 L-5.2wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-45%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked Norway59c13,475$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,474.584854.2%26 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…3931backed Iraq50c12,901$6,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,450.717020%14 W · 56 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-39.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf21…1846backed Norway59c12,641$7,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,182.611050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x208c…6b98backed Norway60c12,020$7,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,797.489846.9%46 W · 52 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Iraq41c11,944$4,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,865.231,94135.5%690 W · 1,251 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Iraq39c11,839$4,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,655.522,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82da…da33backed Iraq45c11,575$5,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,241.673240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Iraq41c11,514$4,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,693.2884751%432 W · 415 L+10.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Iraq48c10,673$5,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,175.2853448.5%259 W · 275 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb15…8393backed Norway40c10,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,00014829.7%44 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x839e…0d3cbacked Norway60c10,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00013639%53 W · 83 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0867…466cbacked Norway59c10,000$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,099.971346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick35cpaid-22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Iraq41c9,755$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,999.521849.5%108 W · 110 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed Iraq50c8,876$4,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,431.317349.3%36 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Iraq41c8,689$3,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,530.521,56043.8%684 W · 876 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf031…c80cbacked Norway59c8,631$5,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,538.8133538.2%128 W · 207 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac1c…d8b5backed Norway59c8,537$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,536.8114734%50 W · 97 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b75…433bbacked Norway59c8,475$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,474.5813544.4%60 W · 75 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Norway60c8,333$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,333.3331644.9%142 W · 174 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Norway59c8,220$4,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,370.344341.9%18 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Iraq41c7,939$3,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,254.821,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Iraq41c7,500$3,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,074.9986452.7%455 W · 409 L+26.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe1d…3d76backed Iraq42c6,951$2,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,910.81127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Norway59c6,933$4,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,851.868,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Norway59c6,780$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,779.6620262.4%126 W · 76 L-0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa600…0fc5backed Norway59c6,325$3,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,593.1317158.5%100 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Iraq41c6,000$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,46016258.6%95 W · 67 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Iraq41c6,000$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,459.9822451.3%115 W · 109 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Iraq42c5,952$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50012554.4%68 W · 57 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd23f…7777backed Norway59c5,492$3,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,251.53850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Norway64c5,445$3,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,960.210146.5%47 W · 54 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8944…41d5backed Norway59c5,409$3,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,217.682740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x896e…53f2backed Iraq43c5,337$2,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.4517443.1%75 W · 99 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3590…71c0backed Norway59c5,085$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,084.751216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-65.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x274c…da86backed Norway59c5,085$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,084.751560%9 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+51.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Norway60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00018837.2%70 W · 118 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a2…353abacked Norway54c5,000$2,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,289.994841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dba…1d6cbacked Norway59c5,000$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,049.9911561.7%71 W · 44 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Iraq40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.9847032.8%154 W · 316 L-0.7wins0.00per pick33cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb797…e779backed Iraq40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.9512343.1%53 W · 70 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Iraq41c4,924$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.8163151.5%325 W · 306 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…5cb0backed Iraq41c4,880$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.7825537.6%96 W · 159 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Norway59c4,827$2,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,979.2522229.7%66 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33d…a537backed Norway59c4,711$2,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,931.598530.6%26 W · 59 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26e7…cc6cbacked Iraq43c4,598$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003030%9 W · 21 L-5.5wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-22.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Iraq41c4,500$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8451,53649.1%754 W · 782 L+32.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Norway64c4,317$2,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,539.942,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60e4…c771backed Norway50c4,250$2,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,114.415939%23 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb399…9435backed Norway78c4,132$3,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.2528042.1%118 W · 162 L-16.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Norway60c4,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,60035446%163 W · 191 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7516…8bebbacked Iraq41c4,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,62011657.8%67 W · 49 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf892…7f58backed Iraq42c4,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6802420.8%5 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-55.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Iraq41c4,000$1,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,63048441.9%203 W · 281 L-16.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c2…3048backed Norway59c4,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,639.9819148.2%92 W · 99 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Iraq40c3,792$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,502.542,81944.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L-36.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Norway52c3,747$1,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,780.1977152.8%407 W · 364 L+17.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Iraq40c3,573$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.9547643.3%206 W · 270 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef5…fc37backed Iraq41c3,480$1,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,426.810152.5%53 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9278…9a1bbacked Norway59c3,468$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,417.7715453.9%83 W · 71 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc16c…a3aabacked Norway58c3,448$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.285863.8%37 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Norway61c3,438$2,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340.8919345.1%87 W · 106 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Norway59c3,258$1,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,340.031,56339.8%622 W · 941 L-51.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.